fall forecast ontario

Here's what the next three months of weather could look like in Ontario

As Ontario mourns the unofficial end of a summer marked by scorching temperatures, locals may want to hold off on transitioning to their fall wardrobe, thanks to some unseasonably warm weather ahead.

Sweater weather may loom just around the corner for Ontario, but a new three-month outlook from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is providing some hope that patio season could extend deep into the fall months.

ECCC's latest temperature probabilist forecast bodes well for anyone trying to stretch the most out of their summer in Ontario.

The seasonal prediction system, which is intended to forecast the evolution of meteorological trends over one-to-three-month periods, suggests a pretty good chance of above-normal temperatures in Ontario from September through November.

Residents of Ontario's most populous region to the south are looking at a 40 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures during this three-month period. 

That figure jumps to a 50 per cent chance for Ontario's northern hinterland, and increases even more to 60 per cent for the northernmost reaches of the province.

ontario weather fall

Environment and Climate Change Canada

Of course, there is still a chance conditions could swing to the normal, or even cooler side of the temperature spectrum.

Environcan predicts a 30 per cent probability of near-normal temperatures in Sept., Oct., and Nov.

The government climate agency also notes a 10 per cent chance of below-normal temps across much of the province, with that number jumping to 20 per cent in southwestern Ontario.

ontario weather fall

Environment and Climate Change Canada

The forecast echoes the Farmers' Almanac Extended Fall Forecast for 2025, released this July. That forecast predicted that southern Ontario "will enjoy some of the warmest and most temperate days of the season, especially in early October and mid-November."

Lead photo by

Jack Landau


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