Southern Ontario could get taste of winter this week including snow in Toronto

Unseasonably warm conditions in southern Ontario could come to a crashing halt this week, as a cold weather system threatens to bring the first freezing temperatures of the season in the coming days.

High pressure pushing in from the U.S. East Coast has kept late fall temperatures well above seasonal in Toronto and the surrounding region. And while a record-breaking "super" El Niño is expected to bring mild conditions this winter, the reality of the situation is that we still live in Canada, and even milder temperatures will require some bundling up.

According to The Weather Network (TWN), that bundling up may come sooner than expected, warning that the "coldest air of the season" thus far will descend on southern Ontario later this week, with temperatures set to plummet to at or near-freezing Thursday into Friday.

Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) current 7-day Toronto forecast calls for Thursday overnight temps of 0 C, feeling more like -3 C with wind chill. 

The same temperatures are expected overnight Friday, Nov. 13, and Saturday, Nov. 14, along with a 30 per cent chance of precipitation which the government weather agency says could manifest as either rain showers or flurries.

According to TWN, the latest calendar date for the first freezing temperatures of the season in Toronto was on Nov. 13 back in 2022, with TWN adding that "it'll be a close call this year to see if that record will be broken."

Temperatures are expected to rebound to close out the weekend, with ECCC predicting a mix of sun and cloud with a 30 per cent chance of showers and a high of 9 C on Sunday, Nov. 15.

It's been an uncharacteristically mild November in Ontario so far, though longer-range forecasts predict more of a mixed bag for December.

The Old Farmer's Almanac recently released its December 2026 long-range forecast for southern Ontario, which predicts the province will witness flurries and fluctuating temperatures throughout the month, and the potential for rain showers to put a damper on the holiday season.