Will Ontario get a white Christmas in 2026?

A white Christmas in Ontario might still be in the cards despite all the chatter about a record-setting El Niño creating mild conditions this coming winter.

A new report from The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts prime conditions for a white Christmas across a large patch of the northeast, including portions of the Great Lakes region like Southern Ontario.

Many in the province may still be boxing up their Halloween decorations, but with the spooky season giving way to the distant clanging of bells going jing-a-ling, meteorologists are looking ahead to perhaps the only day of the year when people actually want precipitation.

The Almanac cites the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) definition of a White Christmas, which means a minimum of 2.5 centimetres of snow on the ground for Christmas Day, rather than referring to snowfall on said day.

And based on this metric, the Almanac thinks the populous Southern Ontario region is in good shape to see snow on the ground for Christmas Day.

"In southern Ontario, there is a chance of a white Christmas in the east and a white Christmas in the west," predicts the Almanac.

That forecast dovetails with the Almanac's forecast for December, which predicted flurries and mild temperatures in southeastern Ontario between Dec. 23 and 31, while southwestern Ontario will see snowy periods and cold temperatures.

News of a potential white Christmas follows earlier reports that this will be Ontario's "mildest winter in years," which meteorologists chalk up to a supersized El Niño — a natural climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

El Niño events typically develop between March and June, reaching peak intensity between November and February. 

The Weather Network states that December temperatures in Toronto during strong El Niño years have averaged 2.6 C warmer than normal, offering some hope that this winter might not feel as harsh as past years.