Will Toronto's mayoral election come down to just a handful of votes?

Election Day has finally arrived here in Toronto, meaning droves of residents will be heading to the polls to decide the city's next mayor.

Mayor Olivia Chow is facing a competitive challenge from Beaches-East York city councillor Brad Bradford, with the two frontrunners separated by only a few percentage points in recent polls.

Although some surveys showed Chow leading by double digits just a few weeks ago, other polls suggest that the race is now effectively a statistical tie, making today's municipal election one of the closest races in recent memory. The stakes are particularly high for Chow, as no sitting Toronto mayor has lost a re-election bid since the city's amalgamation in 1998.

So, with the two candidates neck and neck, could Toronto's municipal election actually end in a tie? While a tie is theoretically possible, considering the size of Toronto's voting population, it's not the most realistic outcome.

A tie in the popular vote would mean the two top candidates received the exact same number of votes, which is different from a statistical tie. The latter term describes a polling result where the difference between candidates falls within the survey's margin of error.

According to a Nanos Research survey released last week, 49.8 per cent of decided voters supported Chow, compared with 46.6 per cent for Bradford. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, meaning Chow's narrow lead wasn't statistically decisive.

A separate Liaison Strategies survey released this week also put Chow ahead with 52 per cent support, compared with 44 per cent for Bradford. This survey polled 750 Toronto residents between Oct. 24 and 25, and had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bradford, who has represented Beaches-East York since 2018, previously ran in Toronto's 2023 mayoral by-election but finished eighth. This time around, the closely contested race appears to be drawing more voters to the polls, with over 220,000 people casting ballots during advance voting (a 72 per cent increase from the 2023 by-election).

Although the citywide race is closing, some polling suggests that support for the two candidates varies considerably across Toronto.

Last week, Forum Research polling exclusively provided to blogTO offered a closer look at voting intentions in some of the city's most contentious wards. In York-South Weston, Chow holds a relatively narrow lead, with 51 per cent support among surveyed voters compared with 44 per cent for Bradford.

In Parkdale-High Park, the race is considerably tight, with Chow receiving 51 per cent support and Bradford trailing close behind at 46 per cent. Another key ward to watch will be Scarborough Southwest, where Chow currently holds 50 per cent support, compared with 47 per cent for Bradford.

Polling stations will open from 10 a.m. until 8 p.m. on Monday, Oct. 26. Aside from electing the city's mayor,  you'll be able to vote for your local city councillor and school board trustees, if applicable.

To vote, you'll need to show an acceptable piece of ID displaying your name and qualifying Toronto address to receive a ballot. Accepted documents include a driver's licence, government-issued identification like an Ontario Photo Card, a bank statement, a utility bill, or an employment-issued pay stub.