Exclusive polls show where Toronto mayoral candidates stand in key battlegrounds

With Toronto's municipal election just days away, new polling shows where mayoral candidates Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford stand in some of the city's most contentious wards ahead of the vote on Monday, Oct. 26.

As the race between Chow and Bradford heats up, polling from Canadian survey research firm Forum Research, exclusively provided to blogTO, offers a closer look at the voting intention in six key Toronto wards.

Each ward's results are based on a combined sample of residents aged 18 and older, using a mix of random interactive voice response telephone interviewing and non-random online panel surveying.

While the two candidates are separated by just a few percentage points in some highly contested areas, Chow holds substantial leads in other battleground wards, according to the latest polling.

Here's how the mayoral race is shaping up across these six battleground wards.

York South—Weston

According to Forum Research, Chow holds a narrow lead over Bradford in York—South Weston, with 51 per cent of voters surveyed supporting the incumbent mayor compared with 44 per cent for Bradford.

"York South–Weston's city councillor race remains highly competitive, with Frances Nunziata, Daniel DiGiorgio, and Chiara Padovani all attracting significant levels of support," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

"In the mayoral contest, Olivia Chow holds a narrow lead over Brad Bradford among York South–Weston voters. These results suggest that both races remain competitive, with voters still closely divided in their preferences."

Chow's lead in Ward 5 comes as a surprise given her performance in the 2023 mayoral by-election, where she placed a distant second in York South–Weston with just 29.57 percent of the vote.

Forum Research

Beaches—East York

Bradford trails Chow by a considerable margin in the ward's mayoral voting intentions, despite representing Beaches—East York as a city councillor since 2018.

According to Forum Research, Chow leads with 60 per cent in support, while Bradford holds 37 per cent of the expected vote in his own ward.

"Olivia Chow holds a strong lead over Brad Bradford in mayoral voting intentions among Beaches–East York voters," Bozinoff notes.

Forum Research

Parkdale—High Park

The mayoral race is considerably closer in Parkdale—High Park, where Chow leads Bradford by just five percentage points.

"Parkdale–High Park appears to be shaping up as a two-candidate race between Nadia Guerrera and Diana Chan McNally, with very little separating the two frontrunners," said Bozinoff. "The mayoral contest is also highly competitive in the ward, with Olivia Chow holding a narrow advantage over Brad Bradford. These results suggest that both races remain very much in play and could shift as the campaign progresses."

Chow has 51 per cent support among surveyed voters, compared with 46 per cent for Bradford. It's a narrow margin compared to Chow's 24-point victory in Parkdale–High Park in the 2023 mayoral by-election.

Forum Research

Scarborough North

Scarborough North is among the surveyed wards where Chow currently has her strongest support, leading Bradford by 30 percentage points.

"Shaun Chen has established a clear lead in the Scarborough North city councillor race, holding an eight-point advantage over Jamaal Myers," said Bozinoff. "In the mayoral contest, Olivia Chow maintains a commanding lead over Brad Bradford among Scarborough North voters. These results suggest that both Chen and Chow are well positioned in the ward, with each holding a sizeable advantage over their nearest competitor."

The incumbent mayor has 62 per cent support, compared with 32 per cent for Bradford. Chow's advantage in this ward has grown considerably since the 2023 mayoral by-election, when she brought in 47.15 per cent of the vote in Ward 23.

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Scarborough Southwest

Unlike in neighbouring Scarborough North, the mayoral contest in Scarborough Southwest is much tighter.

According to Forum Research, Chow leads Bradford by just three percentage points, with 50 per cent support compared with 47 per cent for Bradford.

"Scarborough Southwest is shaping up as a highly competitive race for city councillor, with Parthi Kandavel and Kevin Rupasinghe running nearly neck and neck," said Bozinoff.

"The mayoral contest is similarly close in the ward, with only a few points separating Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford. These results suggest that both races remain very much up for grabs among Scarborough Southwest voters."

This ward also proved competitive in 2023, when Chow took 35.70 per cent of the vote over Ana Bailao's 30.61 per cent.

​​​​​​​Forum Research

Toronto Centre

Support for Chow is well established in Toronto Centre, where 58 per cent of voters surveyed said they intend to vote for the incumbent mayor. Bradford trails with 40 per cent support, while another two per cent favour a different candidate.

"Olivia Chow maintains a clear lead over Brad Bradford among Toronto Centre voters. While Chow appears to be well positioned in the ward, the race for city councillor remains closely contested between the leading candidates." Bozinoff notes.

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Toronto—Danforth

Toronto—Danforth is another battleground ward where Chow currently has a substantial advantage over Bradford, according to Forum Research.

The incumbent mayor leads with 60 per cent in support, compared with 34 per cent for Bradford.

"Sara Ehrhardt has established a clear lead in the Toronto Danforth city councillor race, holding a significant advantage over both Mary Fragedakis and Dianne Saxe," said Bozinoff.

Forum Research

"At the same time, Olivia Chow maintains a strong lead over Brad Bradford in mayoral voting intentions among Toronto Danforth voters. These results suggest that Ehrhardt has emerged as the candidate to beat in the councillor race, while Chow continues to enjoy broad support among voters in the ward."