Toronto could shatter 80-year-old weather record thanks to unseasonably warm fall

It's been an unseasonably warm fall so far here in Toronto, and it doesn't look like this pleasant weather pattern will be going anywhere anytime soon, as temperatures are expected to climb into the low 20s on Thursday.

Despite November being just days away, Toronto could potentially break an 80-year-old weather record this week, as a warm front brings unusually mild conditions. 

According to The Weather Network's forecast, temperatures in Toronto are expected to reach 22 C this afternoon, potentially surpassing the daily record of 21. 7 C set all the way back on Oct. 29, 1946. Certain cities in southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, could see temperatures climb even higher, with an estimated daytime high of 23 C on Thursday.

Although we've experienced glimpses of true fall weather throughout October, more typical seasonal conditions have yet to fully settle in for the long haul. Toronto hasn't recorded a temperature at or below 0 C since May 3, meaning it's been exactly 178 days since the city last dipped to freezing.

On average, Toronto sees its first freezing temperature of the season around Oct. 13, which means this year's milestone is well behind schedule. On average, temperatures during this time of year hover around 10 to 11 C during the day, with overnight lows between 3 and 4 C.

Heading into November, mild conditions are expected to persist, meaning there are currently no signs of freezing temperatures in Toronto's immediate forecast.

If you're wondering where this unusually warm pattern is coming from, look no further than the exceptionally strong El Niño that's developing in the equatorial Pacific, which can significantly influence weather patterns around the world.

Although we'll see plenty of sunshine and summer-like temperatures on Thursday, precipitation won't be out of the question. Showers are expected to move across southern Ontario, beginning near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay late in the afternoon before reaching the GTA by the time evening rolls around.

While temperatures above 20 C this late in the season aren't entirely unheard of, they are becoming less and less common as we move deeper into fall. The mild pattern doesn’t mean winter isn’t on its way either — back in 2020, snow arrived just two weeks after the season's final 20 C day.