What the next three months of weather will look like in Ontario

We're now officially at the midpoint of fall, meaning it's only a matter of weeks before temperatures in Ontario take a dramatic plunge; however, the upcoming frosty season could be milder than usual this year, thanks in part to a climate phenomenon that's expected to have a major influence on weather patterns. 

According to the latest probabilistic forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Ontario is overwhelmingly likely to experience above-normal temperatures between November 2026 and January 2027. 

The federal department released its latest three-month outlook this weekend, offering an early look at how temperature trends might play out across Canada throughout the winter season. 

Although the department's prediction can help identify broader seasonal patterns, it isn't designed to forecast specific weather events, like snowstorms or periods of heavy precipitation. 

According to the first model, virtually the entire province — aside from a small section of southwestern Ontario near Lake Erie — has a 90 to 100 per cent probability of experiencing above-normal temperatures over the next three months. 

Even the small portion of southwestern Ontario that's excluded from this range still has an 80 to 90 per cent chance of seeing warmer-than-usual temperatures. 

As expected, the second model shows that most of Ontario, including the GTA, has just a 0 to 10 per cent chance of experiencing temperatures around seasonal averages.

As for below-normal temperatures, the third model shows that most of the province has just a 0 to 10 per cent probability of seeing colder-than-normal conditions during this three-month period. 

These models line up with The Weather Network's winter sneak peek released last month, which suggested that Canada could be headed toward one of its "mildest winters in years" and potentially "one of the warmest starts on record." 

According to the long-range outlook, there's little doubt that the upcoming winter will lean mild, thanks to a potentially record-breaking El Niño that's expected to peak around the beginning of the season. 

Although it directly translates to "little boy" in Spanish, El Niño refers to a natural climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. 

While it develops thousands of kilometres away from Canada, El Niño can significantly influence global atmospheric circulation and shift temperature patterns around the world, including here in Ontario. 

Still, The Weather Network warns that winter could still make an impact through sharp bursts, particularly between late January and February. However, for the most part, colder spells are expected to be short-lived, meaning Ontario could be heading for a season that's warmer than usual overall.