Ontario's November forecast for 2026 is in and here's what's in store

Ontario's November forecast is officially out and is offering an early glimpse at what the province can expect weather-wise during the upcoming month, including when snow could make its first appearance of the season.

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac's long-range forecast for southern Ontario, November is expected to bring a range of weather to the region, including a mix of sunny and warm days, followed by chilly stretches and a few rounds of snow and flurries.

The month is expected to start off on a relatively mild note, with the long-range forecast calling for sunny and warm conditions between Nov. 1 and 6. The following week, a few showers are expected in eastern parts of the region, while southwestern Ontario is anticipated to remain warm and sunny.

Temperatures will take a plunge from Nov. 12 to 17 across the region, but conditions are still expected to be warm and pleasant. However, snowy and cool weather will take over from Nov. 18 to 22, followed by rain showers and mild temperatures from Nov. 23 to 26.

The month is expected to end with a cold snap, with flurries and dropping temperatures from Nov. 27 to 30. Overall, the Almanac forecasts an average November temperature of 4.5 C in southern Ontario, roughly 1 C above average in the east and 4 C above average in the west.

Precipitation is expected to reach 45 mm, which is about 25 mm below average for the region.

Although the Almanac's forecast suggests that snow could arrive in southern Ontario in the latter half of November, one climate pattern could mean that winter-like conditions show up earlier.

El Niño is currently firmly established and is expected to strengthen into a very "strong event" over the coming months, according to a September update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The organization says there's an exceptionally high likelihood (nearly 100 per cent) that El Niño will persist through February 2027.

The natural climate phenomenon — which typically occurs every two to seven years — is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Its effects can be felt thousands of kilometres away, as the climate pattern alters atmospheric circulation and influences temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. While El Niño is often associated with warmer winters across Canada, its influence during the fall can look quite different in Ontario.

According to The Weather Network (TWN), strong El Niño falls have historically brought cooler-than-average conditions to Ontario. For the GTA specifically, mean temperatures during these events have historically been below the 1950-2025 average, with October seeing the biggest difference at 1.3 C below normal.

Normally, Toronto sees its first snowfall of at least 0.2 cm by Nov. 11, but during strong El Niño years, that date has historically moved up to Nov. 3, eight days earlier.

However, the earlier introduction of snow won't necessarily mean a harsh winter is in store. TWN notes that the cooler pattern that's usually associated with strong El Niño falls tends to break down by December, resulting in what it describes as a "late onset" to winter.

In Toronto, December temperatures during strong El Niño years have averaged 2.6 C warmer than normal.