Ontario's fall forecast for 2026 has officially arrived and here's what to expect

Summer is officially on its way out here in Ontario, and with less than two weeks until the arrival of fall, a new forecast for the upcoming season has finally arrived. 

The Weather Network released its highly anticipated 2026 fall forecast for Canada on Wednesday, providing an early glimpse of what weather patterns will dominate across the country over the next few months. 

Any forecast for this upcoming fall wouldn't be complete without mention of the "supersized" El Niño that is now "firmly established" and is expected to intensify into a "very strong event," according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 

The natural climate pattern, which now has a 100 per cent likelihood of persisting through February 2027, is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

The phenomenon occurs only every two to seven years, and its effects can be felt across the globe, including here in Ontario, as it significantly shifts atmospheric circulation and temperature and precipitation patterns.

As a result, The Weather Network notes that most of Canada is headed for an extended fall this year that'll favour mild spells over cold snaps, fewer classic storms, and a delayed arrival of winter conditions.

While the powerful El Niño event is sure to bring a gradual transition to fall across the country, cold temperatures are still not out of the question. 

"Not even the strongest El Niño can stop Canada's inevitable temperature slide through fall. Cooler temperatures eventually win. Sorry, summer lovers, but this year, El Niño will put up a formidable fight," the weather channel's report reads. 

What's more certain is that a split jet stream and a Pacific-dominated flow will favour more Pacific air across Canada, making icy Arctic blasts less likely. However, typhoons will be a wildcard this season, with the potential to bring sudden changes and disrupt mild fall conditions. 

Overall, most of Canada (including all of Ontario) is in for above-normal temperatures this upcoming fall. Another model also shows that the majority of Ontario will experience below-normal precipitation throughout the season. 

In its Ontario-specific forecast, the weather channel describes the province's upcoming fall personality as "unhurried" thanks to its extended version of fall. 

The forecast notes that fewer classic fall storms can be expected in Ontario, although a large chunk of mid-September through mid-October might run close to seasonal temperatures. Despite this "unhurried" version of fall, the channel warns that one major storm can still define a season, which can significantly impact how fall is remembered. 

 "Seasonal forecasts sketch out the dominant pattern, but unexpected impacts, including significant weather events, are still possible," The Weather Network writes. 

"El Niño will likely delay the onset of persistent winter conditions. This El Niño developed unusually early, raising an important question for winter: does it peak before the season gets underway, or maintain its exceptional strength into the heart of winter?" 

Although Toronto's average first day of snow is Nov. 3, the report also warns that the delayed arrival of winter conditions could impact early ski area snowmaking.