Here's what the next three months of weather will look like in Ontario

It's been a scorching-hot summer across much of Ontario, and while autumn's chill seems almost within reach, you might want to keep that warm-weather wardrobe in rotation for the foreseeable future.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released its latest three-month probabilistic forecast on Friday, offering a glimpse into the conditions for late summer and early fall.

Ontario is flirting with above-average temperatures for the three-month span of August, September and October, with the latest ECCC forecast predicting a 50 per cent probability of above-normal temperatures in the most populous areas of the province, including southern and southwestern Ontario.

That probability trends higher in areas further north, with a 60 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures for much of Northern Ontario. The extreme north of the province is projected for 70 and 80 per cent probability of above-normal temps.

Environment and Climate Change Canada

That warm weather will come with at least some clear skies, as ECCC predicts just a 10 per cent chance of above-normal precipitation over the next three months across the majority of Ontario.

Ontario, along with all of Canada, are projected to see a 30 per cent chance of near-normal rainfall during this period, while there is a 20 to 30 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall during this three-month stretch, with a higher likelihood in northern and southwestern Ontario.

ECCC's project comes just a couple of weeks after the Old Farmer's Almanac released the Canadian edition of its 2026 fall forecast, projecting a milder fall in Ontario. 

The Almanac's prediction for fall calls for warmer-than-average temperatures across most provinces and territories, though cooler weather is expected in certain pockets like southern Ontario, where September is shaping up to be chillier than average before temperatures rebound to near-normal in October.

That same forecast calls for above-average rainfall, including "well above average" precipitation in southeastern Ontario and "slightly above average" rainfall in southwestern Ontario.