Ontario's summer forecast for 2026 has officially arrived and here's what's in store

If you were hoping for a hot and dry summer in Ontario with minimal rainfall and maximum sunshine, this year's forecast suggests it might not be all that simple. 

Ontario's summer outlook for 2026 has officially arrived, and while above-average heat is still expected, the season is shaping up to be more mixed, especially across southern parts of the province. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac released its summer 2026 predictions this week, noting that much of North America is in for a hotter-than-usual season. Temperatures are expected to run hotter across both the U.S. and Canada, with the most intense heat likely to take hold in July and August. 

However, southern Ontario stands out as an exception to that broader trend. Based on the Almanac's forecast map, the region is expected to lean more "cool and rainy," which could disrupt any prolonged stretches of heat.

Northern parts of the province are expected to be warm and dry, while central regions are likely to experience hotter temperatures along with more rainfall. 

Photo: The Old Farmer's Almanac.

On top of temperatures, rainfall patterns across Canada are also expected to be inconsistent this summer, creating a mix of wetter and drier conditions depending on which region you live in. For those of us in southern Ontario, we can expect wetter-than-usual conditions thanks to more frequent showers. 

There will also be some variability in Ontario itself, as the eastern portion of the province will trend cooler, while the west will run warmer. 

Looking a bit closer at the lead-up to summer, the Almanac's long-range forecast for southern Ontario in May paints a similar, mixed picture. The month is expected to start off on a sunny note from May 1 to 9, followed by cooler temperatures and showers. 

Warmer, sunnier conditions are expected from May 10 to 16, before temperatures dip again, along with a few showers between May 17 and 25. The final days of the month could bring some scattered thunderstorms, coming at the expense of warmer temperatures. 

Overall, the average temperature in May is projected to be around 11 degrees C, which is about 1 C below normal, along with 90 mm of precipitation.