Here's what the next three months of spring weather will look like in Ontario

After a bitter blast of Arctic air swept through the province this past weekend, you're probably anxiously eyeing your calendar and wondering when you can finally swap those heavy parkas for lighter layers. 

Thankfully, there's a newly released forecast that offers a better picture of when milder temperatures are expected to return, and when the long-awaited signs of spring will finally begin to pop up across Ontario. 

Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest temperature probabilistic forecasts for the period between March and May 2026 were released over the weekend, offering a glimpse ahead at the months of spring weather to come. The three-month seasonal outlook is released at the end of each month and analyzes meteorological trends for the current season. 

It's important to note that the prediction system provides only a probabilistic view of weather trends and temperatures and does not identify any periods of precipitation or specific weather-related events. 

Although the graphs are merely predictions, they do offer some insight as to how the spring season could unfold. 

According to the graphs, the probability that the GTA will experience above-normal temperatures during these three months is between 50 and 70 per cent, while northern parts of the province are looking at a 20 to 40 per cent probability. 

Overall, the majority of the province is looking at a 30 to 40 per cent chance of experiencing near-normal temperatures throughout this period, although some parts of the GTA have a lesser chance of 20 to 30 per cent. 

Based on the third model, southern Ontario has a 0 to 20 per cent probability of experiencing below-normal temperatures, while northern parts of the province are looking at a 20 to 40 per cent chance. 

Environment and Climate Change Canada's outlook slightly contrasts with some earlier forecasts made last month. In its spring 2026 forecast, The Weather Network predicts near-normal temperatures in the GTA throughout spring, with mild spells of warm weather offset by periods of cold weather. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac also predicts that the weather will be cooler than normal in southern Ontario throughout spring, with above-normal precipitation in the north and below-normal precipitation in the south.