Ontario end of winter and early spring weather forecast has arrived

Based on Ontario's weather thus far this week, you wouldn't be blamed for thinking that spring is making an early arrival in the province. But, the glimmer of these few balmier days is set to be short-lived, with minus double digit temperatures and more snow on the way for parts of the province in the coming days.

So, what climate is in store for the Toronto area and beyond in March as we shed our winter layers?

Meteorologists are anticipating a return to more seasonal conditions as we kick off the month, with another 10-15 cm (or more!) in the south of the province thanks to another dose of back-to-back storms.

"The warmth doesn't mean the end of winter weather. In fact, snowfall will return to the province as the next system brings a coating of snow, and even a chance of freezing rain and drizzle for some areas," The Weather Network wrote on Tuesday.

Wouldn't be the worst idea to set the alarm a little earlier tomorrow morning around the #GTA for risk of snow, freezing rain &/or rain (temps very close to 0°C). A clipper with some decent jam likely to put down additional accumulation Friday into Saturday. Purple = >15 cm. pic.twitter.com/JmLgyJlTzs

— Chris Murphy TWN (@MurphTWN) February 26, 2025

After a sprinkling that could mean messy, icy roads later today into Thursday, a bigger hit of snow will start Friday, with places like the Ottawa area, Cornwall, Kingston, Gravenhurst and Bancroft among those due to see the most accumulation.

The GTHA, including Toronto proper, are expected to receive another 10 cm of snow over the weekend, which will be wet and heavy. More northern parts of the province, like Thunder Bay, will see more than double this amount, while just north of the GTA will get "a sloppy mix of rain, snow and ice persisting in flurries," TWN writes.

Temps will plummet quickly from -2 C (feeling like -8 C) on March 1 to -9 C (feeling like a frigid -16 C) on March 2.

Looking beyond this weekend, the long-range forecast remains just as messy as the next few days, with a mix of sunny days, flurries and rain.

Around Toronto extending north toward Barrie, the second week of the month will be mostly grey and wet, but will stay mostly above 0 C (though wind chills will fall to minus double digits overnight).

There will be scattered flurries both days of the weekend of March 8-9, with rain dominating the week to follow as we get closer to the official day of spring on March 20.

The Old Farmers' Almanac, which provides forecasts further in advance, calls for the following for the month in Southern Ontario:

• March 1-3: Sunny in the north of the region, heavy snow further south and chilly all around
• March 4-10: Snow in the north, periods of flurries in the east, still chilly all over
• March 11-16: Snowstorms in the north, a mix of rain and snow further south, starting to warm up
• March 17-31: Sunny in the north, rain further south, warmer still

It predicts an average temperature of -1 C for the month overall, which is 1 degree below normal, and 90 mm of total precipitation, which is 35 mm above average.

ECCC's seasonal long-range map is vague, but forecasts higher-than-usual temperatures in Ontario for March and April.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s seasonal maps, meanwhile, say it is more likely that we will have above-average temperatures across Ontario for the period spanning from February to April, with higher than usual levels of precipitation around the Great Lakes region.

It seems that in accordance with earlier estimates, conditions will be a little all over the place thanks to La Niña, with above-seasonal temps but chaotic storm tracks and fast-moving low pressure systems.