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Mayoral race tightens on the eve of Rob Ford's return

Posted by Derek Flack / June 25, 2014

Mayoral Race TorontoOne week away from Rob Ford's return to the mayor's office and the campaign trail, the Toronto election is as tight as it's ever been. In a new poll conducted by Forum Research, the mayor has clawed back a little from the historic low his approval rating had hit in the company's last survey. While one needs to bear in mind the accuracy of the poll (three percentage points, 19 times out of 20), Ford's improved numbers do underline the degree to which he remains a competitive candidate in the race.

Forum Research PollThe projected share of votes between the frontrunners breaks down as follows: Chow: 34 per cent, Ford: 27 per cent; Tory 24 per cent. Those numbers mirror Forum Research's poll from April 14th, roughly three weeks before the mayor checked himself into rehab amid a second drug-related scandal. In other words, if Forum's numbers are to be trusted, Ford is every bit the contender he was prior to his absence.

Ford's approval rating is also up in this poll, rising from 28 per cent to 32 per cent. That's still well below the 46 per cent he enjoyed prior to rehab, but there's plenty of opportunity for the mayor to win Ford Nation back upon his return on June 30th. For additional insights from the poll, head over to Forum's website.

Photo by Roger Cullman Photography.

Discussion

62 Comments

iSkyscraper / June 25, 2014 at 09:31 am
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Ford was always his worst enemy. The angry-at-the-world forces that put him in power -- frustration with high fees and taxes, personal experience with congestion, low-achiever jealousy, crumbling inner suburbs -- have not gone away. Had Ford assumed office, crawled into a hole and not spoken for four years his approval rating would likely be 100. So Doug's plan to get him out of town and let everything magically restore itself certainly worked.

But now Ford will be forced to talk again, and will be in and about the city, so expect these numbers to drop soon.

Is there a betting pool for "Number of Days Until Next Ford Scandal?"
DL / June 25, 2014 at 09:35 am
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More Ford More Fun!
Dogma / June 25, 2014 at 09:41 am
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That's the way it is. He'll remain a factor until election day for that 20 to 30 per cent of the voting population. The deeper numbers show the other part of the population desperately doesn't want him back.

The net impact of this dynamic will be to kill the dark horse campaigns from Stintz and Socknaki who without Ford int he mix might have had a chance to pull a Nenshi. People will rally around Chow or Tory (and probably Chow) to ensure that Ford doesn't get in.

I suppose there's an outside chance that the right-wing part of the electorate will rally behind Ford who has this impenetrable base that Tory doesn't have. But I think in this case the partisans will be as inclined to stay home as vote for more Ford goofiness.
steve replying to a comment from iSkyscraper / June 25, 2014 at 09:41 am
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I'll take 8 days.
Mike / June 25, 2014 at 09:45 am
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It's so sad that there is even one person in this city who's bought into Rob Ford's "rehab" stunt.

If you're thinking about voting for Rob Ford, instead why not just move to a cabin somewhere in the backwoods where you and your hillbilly ilk belong?
iSkyscraper replying to a comment from iSkyscraper / June 25, 2014 at 09:49 am
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Myself, I'll take 34 days. Ford gets into trouble most around holidays, and July 1 will be too soon. But nothing like an empty City Hall around Simcoe Day for some late-night shenanigans!
Danny / June 25, 2014 at 09:52 am
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It's hilarious and sad that Ford is polling higher than Tory who is basically the same guy politically, just without being a drunken criminal gangster.
AnyoneButChow / June 25, 2014 at 10:11 am
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Wow look at how totally irrelevant Stintz is, she really should just pull out of the race now, same with that dumb-dumb Soknacki.

With any luck voters will actually turn up unlike the provincial election where the only people who voted were unionized pigs voting to keep their jobs and ridiculously high salaries voting Liberal all the way.

Sad how the GTA gets to determine the fate of the entire province to the point that all the other elections Ontario wide really don't matter, so long as the GTA votes LIEBERALS all the darn time.
Parker / June 25, 2014 at 10:15 am
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Cantstopwontstop
Mike replying to a comment from AnyoneButChow / June 25, 2014 at 10:24 am
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The Tories didn't win a seat in any of Ontario's 25 most populous municipalities, but please continue blaming your party's laughably gross incompetence on Toronto, the unions or whatever other boogeymen you and the other dinosaurs want to this week.

Neocons. LOL
mike in parkdale / June 25, 2014 at 10:33 am
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are these the same pollsters that said the provincial race was a dead heat? They're about as reliable as the weather forecast these days.
Grant replying to a comment from AnyoneButChow / June 25, 2014 at 10:35 am
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Aren't you cute with your limited world view. Ever heard of rep by pop? Voter turnout rose 4% because nobody wanted Hudak's asinine platform realized.
sTEVE replying to a comment from AnyoneButChow / June 25, 2014 at 10:39 am
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Please explain why decent wages, working conditions, benefits and pensions are a bad thing. Is that not the goal for anyone working?

Do you understand how an election works?
W. K. Lis / June 25, 2014 at 10:42 am
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Get your referee yellow and red cards ready for Rob Ford's return to the game.
Astin / June 25, 2014 at 11:17 am
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Polls are fairly useless these days, and will become increasingly so as long as they still rely on people picking up landlines.
FordExplosionDate / June 25, 2014 at 11:20 am
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The alien embryo livining in Ford's stomach will explode somewhere between Labour Day and Remembrance Day as a result of crack/dope/alcohol/doorknobbraininess. Tempting to call Labour Day for its symbolism, I'll take November 11 as the day WWF ends. Yes, the World Wrestling Ford Mayorr
FordExplosionDate / June 25, 2014 at 11:23 am
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...will end November 11, the election a mere formality. AnyoneButChow will emigrate to some Tea Party State the same day.
Reg replying to a comment from Danny / June 25, 2014 at 11:24 am
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Its also funny and sad that Tory has the highest approval rating over all the other candidates but people aren't voting for him.
Andy replying to a comment from sTEVE / June 25, 2014 at 11:25 am
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We already have decent wages, working conditions, benefits and pensions. No Need Olivia. Once again she'll take the credit for things that are already in place.
iSkyscraper replying to a comment from Andy / June 25, 2014 at 11:30 am
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"Once again she'll take the credit for things that are already in place."

Um, isn't that a Rob Ford thing to do?
Mike Harris Policy Analyst/Ayn Rand Biographer / June 25, 2014 at 11:33 am
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When the new, truly hard right leader assumes Hudak's mantle, our first policy plank will be to publicly spank every Liberal voter. Can't they understand that running a provincial budget is EXACTLY the same as doing a household budget? I mean who needs business subject areas like corporate or business finance and just who did John Maynard Keynes think he was other than some Brit smarty pants?
steve replying to a comment from Andy / June 25, 2014 at 11:46 am
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who is the 'we'? and why are there so many that do not and why do you want to take that away from people who are in unions?
Soknacki Addict / June 25, 2014 at 12:05 pm
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The Sok actually has the best ideas of any of the candidates. Of course, he doesn't have chance
joeythespoon / June 25, 2014 at 12:07 pm
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An addled man of low character is less adept at hiding his low character than a sober man of low character.

Rob is Rob, no matter what - and let's not forget Doug... Doug has more sobriety than Rob does but Doug is, none-the-less, of equal character.
Squirrel Nutkin / June 25, 2014 at 12:54 pm
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Toronto just loves regular scandals, so my money is on Ford for the win. With the provincial Liberals throwing away $3B on Ornge, eHealth, and the gas plants alone, the fact that they were supported so heavily here shows quite a bit of tolerance. I would assume that many people would tolerate a politician scandalized through the foibles of his personal life/mental health issues more so than politicians throwing away $3B and then claiming we have no money for critical infrastructure like subways.
bill replying to a comment from Squirrel Nutkin / June 25, 2014 at 01:16 pm
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You are going to be disappointed, the majority of Toronto and Ontario disagree with your assessment.
soknaki FTW / June 25, 2014 at 01:34 pm
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I agree wholeheartedly that Soknaki has the best ideas of all the candidates. I don't understand why he polls so low...
Andy replying to a comment from steve / June 25, 2014 at 01:46 pm
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Olivia Chow will have no impact on the day to day of decent wages, working conditions, benefits and pensions she has no control over private companies so I'm not sure why your attaching her name to these issues at all. The mayor of Toronto does not control these things.
steve replying to a comment from Andy / June 25, 2014 at 01:53 pm
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What are you talking about? You have tossed in Olivia Chows name for some odd reason.
Irwin Mimico / June 25, 2014 at 02:21 pm
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As Election day gets closer Rob Ford will take control of the polls once again. Me and the great residents of Mimico can't wait to cast our votes.
mar replying to a comment from Squirrel Nutkin / June 25, 2014 at 02:21 pm
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That whole they forgave libs they will forgive rob is ridiculous argument.

People supported her despite the scandals because of her vision to build a great province,

People will not look past Ford scandals because the guy is hellbent on dismantling our great city.

Apples and Oranges.
Soknacki Addict / June 25, 2014 at 03:30 pm
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Having done some polling work, the key is name recognition. Can't compete without it. The Sok doesn't have it, won't get it.
Nathan Phillips / June 25, 2014 at 03:34 pm
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I agree with SquirrelNutkin. Mental illness and addiction should stop anyone from being elected. Why would sanity matter? Why would sobriety?
Toronto changes name to...MIMICO! / June 25, 2014 at 03:36 pm
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Mimico...cement plant capital of Canada!
SpongeRobFatPants / June 25, 2014 at 03:40 pm
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I wanna win cuz I get better whores when I'm Mr. Mayor! Better drugs too! Remember-BIGOTRY DOESN'T MATTER! VOTE ME, MAYOR BIGOT!
Spike replying to a comment from Squirrel Nutkin / June 25, 2014 at 04:24 pm
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Yes, because a stupid underground choo-choo is SO important to the well being of a city that it`s the highest priority to be funded and built, no matter what else has to be done. Are idiots like you always so simple minded?
Timmy Hudack / June 25, 2014 at 04:30 pm
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Just entered the mayoralty contest. Gonna end ALL city services. No garbage, no sewers, no transit, no paving, no zoning, etc.....NO TAXES, NO GOVERNMENT!!
Timmy Hudack / June 25, 2014 at 04:33 pm
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Ask me for anything...the answer is...NO!
Davy Gravy replying to a comment from Irwin Mimico / June 25, 2014 at 04:45 pm
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You misspelled "waste," Irwin, old boy. Which is just what you're going to do with your vote.

(And BTW, what's so great about the residents of Mimico?)
Davy Gravy replying to a comment from Squirrel Nutkin / June 25, 2014 at 05:00 pm
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Quick! Quick! Change the subject!

Wynne! Liberals! Gas plants! ORNGE! Anything to avoid actually talking about the subject at hand, which is ROB FORD.

Ford Nation would rather talk about anything other than Ford. Why is that, I wonder?
Rob Ford / June 25, 2014 at 05:27 pm
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For the same reason, DG, that religous adherents cannot somtimes say the name of their deity!
ScarboroughStudent replying to a comment from Irwin Mimico / June 25, 2014 at 05:28 pm
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Lol. Go ahead, no one is going to take your rights from voting for mediocrity. You have all the right to do so. It does make you a simpleton though. Not just a simpleton, but an idiot as well. Harshly, maybe uneducated and ill-informed as well. But then again, you still have the right to vote for whomever you want. :) Go ahead, exercise your right! I am so happy for you.
Mobius Loop replying to a comment from Soknacki Addict / June 25, 2014 at 05:29 pm
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Nenshi had 8% support in polls just weeks before his mayoral election victory in Calgary. Soknacki fans shouldn't give up hope... A field like this is perfect for a dark horse.
Irwinn Mimico / June 25, 2014 at 05:30 pm
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My Mommy says I should CEMENT my plans to work for Mr. Mayor. She says I should PLANT Ford signs!
lilly / June 25, 2014 at 05:42 pm
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Please tell that me that blogTO is not rooting for a Ford win. I get the feeling you are from your recent tweets. Are you kidding me? Horrible! Unfollowed, if that were true. Cant respect anything or anyone wanting a Ford win. Embarrassing!
Davy Gravy replying to a comment from Rob Ford / June 25, 2014 at 05:49 pm
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Ah! That explains it. Thanks!
Irwinn Mimico / June 25, 2014 at 07:33 pm
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See, meant to say my IQ is same as a plant. Mr. Mayor cemented my loyalty by planting the idea that he could deal with my cement plant. Mr. Mayor did nothing, just like my dad, which was very, very comforting...in a concrete kind of way.
"Frenchie" McFarlane / June 26, 2014 at 01:52 am
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PRO-LINE OVER/UNDER odds just in re Mayor "Norton" relapse (aka "red card")4.5/5.5 days till next crack vid/DUI/racial slurs audio/Steak Queen Jam. patois with Lisi etc......
#FordMoreYears / June 26, 2014 at 06:37 am
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GREAT news. Redemption headed in the right direction. Robbie loves a challenge and this election is all his.

FordFest barbecue kicks off in Scarborough on July 29, with another in Etobicoke later in the summer and possibly one in North York and downtown.

October 27th!
Sam replying to a comment from AnyoneButChow / June 26, 2014 at 09:27 am
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GTA did not determine Ontario's election, it was Ontarian that did. Liberals won popular vote by a big margin.
What you want however is areas with small population to rule over areas with large population like Toronto, making a small town Ontario vote more important than a GTA vote.
Andy / June 26, 2014 at 10:00 am
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What does this all mean?
Andy, Andy, Andy/ #FordMoreRehab / June 26, 2014 at 10:54 am
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Nothing at all. It means nothing. How many Hudak/Ford/Harpet/Horwaths/Wynnes on the head of a pin. Meaningless.
Amin Massoudi / June 26, 2014 at 12:31 pm
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DECO Labels is putting a float in Pride Parade. On the float is Doug Ford, he is wearing a crotchless leather thong and thunder-beads. Kathy Ford will be dressed up as the Hamburgler and her son as a crack-pipe. Rob Ford is wearing just a t-shirt with a print of Toronto skyline and the words, "i fuck this city for fun" on the front and "white-power" on the back.
Not Surprised is... / June 26, 2014 at 02:48 pm
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...the real cancer. You and your intolerant, overbearing ilk.
Not Surprised is... / June 26, 2014 at 02:51 pm
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...posting off-topic. Ford is the topic. Time for another break, doofus.
Conservatives aren't evil... / June 26, 2014 at 05:07 pm
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...but Hudak, Mike Harris, et al, ARE EVIL and out of step. Bad economics with mathmatical and philosophical errors ARE EVIL. Trickle down Tea Party imported, American wedge politics ARE EVIL. Importing Proposition 13 1970s era California tax reduction ideas IS EVIL. Importing American RIGHT TO WORK LAWS IS EVIL. Pretending household economics apply to government finance IS EVIL. Pretending there is an economic emergency in Ontario that requires draconian measures IS EVIL. Pretending corporate tax cuts will create jobs in Ontario IS EVIL.
I could go on, Not Surprised, but... / June 26, 2014 at 05:11 pm
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...you get the idea. Now, go back to sleep or emigrate to right to work Wisconsin, buy an attack rifle and hibernate in hurricane cellar.
#FordMoreYears / June 26, 2014 at 10:25 pm
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This is starting to feel like the eve of something BIG. Rob's coming back! The final countdown...


October 27th, 2014.
#FordMoreUseless / June 29, 2014 at 07:42 am
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A bigoted incompetent is back from rehab. Big whoop.
Irwinn Mimico (MILF) / June 29, 2014 at 10:13 am
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As election day gets closer, this MILF (Mimicokan I'd like to fuck) will submit to Rob Ford's pole. Me and the other MILFs can't wait to receive Mr. Mayor's..................vote.
Ford's Return is CODSWALLOP! / June 29, 2014 at 07:23 pm
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Newfs & Brits understand.
Excluded Media / June 30, 2014 at 10:00 am
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Thank God! We don't have to report on the feces coming out of "Mr. Mayor" today!

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