Toronto Maple Leafs draft lottery odds are set but there's a catch

Take a deep breath, Leafs fans. This nightmare season has officially come to a close.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have clinched the fifth-worst record in the NHL (32-36-14). The good news is that gives them the fifth-best chance to win the draft lottery. The bad news? We'll have to wait a few weeks to find out if they'll get to keep their first-round draft pick. 

When Toronto acquired defenceman Brandon Carlo last year from the Boston Bruins in exchange for prospect Fraser Minten, the Leafs also included a 2026 first-round pick (top-five protected) to sweeten the deal.

At the time, the Leafs were gearing up for what they hoped would be a deep Stanley Cup Playoff run, so it's easy to assume Toronto's front office didn't imagine the pick would be so high.

Now, the Maple Leafs sit in an interesting spot.

The Leafs have a 58.2 per cent chance at dropping to sixth (44 per cent) or seventh (14.2 per cent), which would result in them losing their pick to Boston. The odds of Toronto staying in the fifth spot are 24.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Leafs have an 8.5 per cent shot to get the first overall pick and an 8.6 per cent shot at second. There's also a small chance (0.3 per cent) they could pick third. 

The current NHL draft lottery odds (Tankathon.com)

If the Maple Leafs keep their 2026 first-rounder, Boston would receive a first-round pick from Toronto in either 2027 or 2028. If Toronto loses the pick to Boston, the franchise may not have its own first-round selection until the 2028 NHL Draft. 

That's because the Leafs also traded their 2027 first-round pick (top-10 protected) to the Philadelphia Flyers in a 2025 trade deadline deal for forward Scott Laughton. Laughton was later dealt again at the 2026 trade deadline to the Los Angeles Kings for a conditional third-round pick that will now become a second-rounder after the Kings clinched a playoff spot.

Nonetheless, this situation sets up an anxious few weeks for Leafs fans, who now have to wait until May 5 for the draft lottery to take place.