Toronto Blue Jays projected to repeat as AL champions

The offseason has barely started, but analytics are loving what the Toronto Blue Jays have done so far. 

We are barely into December, but the Jays have been one of the most active teams in free agency. Toronto kicked things off with a bang, signing top FA pitcher Dylan Cease to a $210 million contract, and then pounced on KBO MVP Cody Ponce to a $30 million deal to strengthen their pitching. 

It doesn't seem like the Blue Jays are done either, as they are hot on top FA Kyle Tucker as well, and have interest in bringing back Bo Bichette. This could be one of the biggest offseasons in franchise history, and analytics are already rewarding them for it. 

With just the two big moves they've already made, the Jays are projected to have the highest WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in the American League at 46.2, which is also second in the entire MLB behind the L.A. Dodgers. 

After the early free agent splashes of Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, the Blue Jays are currently projected to be the best team in the American League 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/8pu7ygmIsP

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) December 3, 2025

The AL teams chasing the Jays in that stat at the moment are the New York Yankees (45.6), Seattle Mariners (44.1), and Boston Red Sox (42.1). The Dodgers, of course, reign supreme at the moment with a projected WAR of 49.9 headed into the 2026 season. 

The Atlanta Braves (43.4), New York Mets (43.0), and Milwaukee Brewers (40.3) are some of the top NL teams chasing the Jays in the stat. 

Those numbers, however, are not set in stone, as there is still a flurry of free-agent signings and potential trades that could significantly alter these projections. For example, if the Jays were to pull off the improbable and sign both Tucker and Bichette, their projected WAR could skyrocket past the Dodgers. 

Toronto came into the offseason with vengeance in mind, and they plan on getting back to the World Series next season. If things keep trending in this direction, that could be a very real possibility.