Canada sees biggest shift in population in over five decades

Canada is seeing its population shrink following a steep decline in the number of international students and foreign workers.

According to Statistics Canada, the population fell by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2025 between July 1 and Oct. 1, bringing it to a total of 41,575,585 as of Oct. 1. With its low birth rate, Canada has been experiencing a low level of natural increase, only adding 17,600 more people during those three months. The agency attributes this population decline largely to fewer temporary residents.

Canada has introduced several policies aimed at reducing the number of non-permanent residents, and their impact has become increasingly evident this year. The largest decline occurred in the third quarter with a drop of 176,47, followed by the second quarter (down 58,719) and the first quarter (down 55,194). According to StatsCan, the third quarter decline was the largest drop since records began 54 years ago in 1971.

As of Oct. 1, temporary residents made up 6.8 per cent of the total population (2,847,737), a decrease from 3,024,216 on July 1, 2025 (7.3 per cent of the total population). StatsCan said this is due to a record-high number of non-permanent residents leaving the country.

The sharpest drop was among foreign students rather than temporary foreign workers.

"The decrease in the number of non-permanent residents in the third quarter of 2025 was attributable to the drop in study permit holders only (-73,682) and in work and study permit holders (-67,616), with a smaller drop in work permit holders only (-35,231)," StatsCan states.

As the provinces with the highest number of study permit holders, Ontario and B.C. saw the steepest population drops. And Canada could continue to see further decline in the number of foreign students entering the country.

The Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said it would limit the total number of permits to 408,000 in 2026. That includes 155,000 new permits and 253,000 extensions for current and returning students. That total is seven per cent lower compared to the target of 437,000 in 2025 and 16 per cent lower compared to the 485,000 target in 2024.

In contrast, permanent immigration levels remained steady, with the country welcoming 102,867 newcomers, similar to last year.

The number of asylum claimants rose by 7,324 in the third quarter to a record high of 504,767; however, this was the smallest quarterly increase for this group since the first quarter of 2022 (an increase of 5,675).

StatsCan says it releases estimates three months after the reference date to provide the most accurate picture. Keep track of real-time changes by checking out Canada's population clock.