Here's what the next 3 months of winter weather could look like in Ontario

With Halloween in the rear-view mirror and the first snowfall of the season fast approaching, Ontario residents are bracing for the colder months ahead. 

But how bad will this winter be for Canada's most populous province?

Long-range forecasts for this coming winter range from "mostly wet and mild" to "traditional winter patterns," and the latest three-month outlook from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) isn't exactly offering much additional clarity.

The government climate agency releases a three-month probabilistic forecast at the start of each month. In contrast to localized long-term forecasts highlighting specific weather systems, Environment Canada's seasonal prediction system offers a nationwide forecast of meteorological trends in percentages — though these figures aren't always definitive.

The latest data, covering the three-month span from November through January, offers the most up-to-date preview of the coming winter, though meteorologists still don't have concrete answers about the trends ahead.

Environment and Climate Change Canada

ECCC's forecast shows Southern Ontario with a 30 per cent probability of above-seasonal temperatures from Nov. 2025 through Jan. 2026, a 40 per cent chance of near-normal, and a 30 per cent chance of below-normal averages.

Environment and Climate Change Canada

So, yeah, it's still kind of a dice roll.

The latest ECCC data does not make predictions on snowfall for the season, though past long-range weather outlooks from the past few months help fill in the blanks.

The Old Farmer's Almanac's winter 2025-2026 forecast predicts Canadians to "brace for snowy stretches, chilly snaps, and the occasional polar surprise," especially in and around the GTA and cottage country.

The similarly-named Farmers' Almanac released a Winter 2025-2026 Extended Weather Forecast earlier this year, predicting a mix of deep freezes, snowfall and winter storms.