Warmer than normal temperatures ahead in Ontario's fall 2024 forecast

September has arrived in Ontario, and despite some relief from the extreme temperatures seen weeks earlier, you'll probably want to keep your air conditioning running for the forecast ahead.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has released its forecast for the fast-approaching fall season, calling for a high probability of above-seasonal temperatures and dry conditions in Ontario.

The government weather agency shared a map with the forecast probability of temperatures above, below, and near normal, covering a period from September through November.

The map shows a large dark red patch covering a significant swath of Canada, including the majority of Ontario, with a very high probability of above-seasonal temperatures this fall.

While the darkest red portion does not cover the most populous regions of Ontario, there is still a very high chance that areas like the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa will experience lingering summer conditions as the colder months approach.

Environment and Climate Change Canada

ECCC projects that Toronto has an 81 per cent probability of seeing above-seasonal temperatures during this three-month stretch, with Ottawa slightly ahead at 82 per cent.

Areas further north, like Thunder Bay, within that darker red blotch on ECCC's probability map, have an 85 per cent chance of experiencing above-seasonal fall temps.

As for rainfall, Ontario residents may find fewer weather-appropriate days to blast that epic guitar solo from November Rain this coming fall.

ECCC projects a 44 per cent chance of below-seasonal precipitation totals in Toronto for the fall, compared to a 32 per cent chance of seasonal and a 23 per cent chance of above-seasonal precipitation.

A recent extended fall forecast from the Farmer's Almanac also predicted dry conditions ahead for the province, though that prediction came with calls for "fair" weather rather than the "above average" temperatures projected by the government weather agency.