Toronto Blue Jays could win every remaining game and still miss playoffs

The Toronto Blue Jays' playoff chances are looking grimmer by the day.

After dropping two of three games to the Texas Rangers over the weekend, the Blue Jays now sit three games back of the third and final American League Wild Card spot with just six games left in the regular season.

What makes the situation even tougher is that the team Toronto is chasing, the Chicago White Sox, holds the regular-season tiebreaker over the Blue Jays. So, technically, Toronto is four games back.

According to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays' postseason odds have plummeted to 3.5 per cent after sitting at 35 per cent just two weeks ago.

During that stretch, Toronto has gone 5-7, dropping several games against teams battling for the same playoff spot.

John E. Sokolowski/Imagn Images

Even though the odds are slim, the clock hasn't struck midnight on the Blue Jays just yet.

If Toronto wins all six of its remaining games, the team would finish the season 83-79 and have a 57 per cent chance of securing the final Wild Card spot, according to FanGraphs.

But they'd still need some help.

Toronto needs either the White Sox or Cleveland Guardians to completely implode over their remaining games, winning fewer than two games.

If either team wins more than two of its final six, the Blue Jays would be eliminated.

The Blue Jays sit three games back of the third American League Wild Card spot with six games left in the 2026 season. (MLB.com)

To make matters even more difficult, Chicago's final opponents happen to be two of MLB's worst teams: the Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies.

The Blue Jays are on the road for a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles before returning home to Rogers Centre to close out the regular season against the Cincinnati Reds this weekend.

Toronto's struggles this season have come on both sides of the ball, but the team's inability to score runs has stood out in particular.

The Blue Jays rank second-to-last in MLB in both runs scored and home runs. Last season, they were among the league's best offensive teams.

It's a far cry from what many Blue Jays fans expected after last year's World Series run captivated the nation.

For Toronto to defend their 2025 American League title, they are going to need to run the table these final six games and get some major help to go along with it.