Toronto Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on pace for career low in home runs

When Toronto Blue Jays first-baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led the postseason in home runs last year, many fans expected big things to come in 2026.

That hasn't been the case in Guerrero's first season as the club's $500-million man.

Entering June, Guerrero Jr. has just three home runs through 60 games and is currently on pace to finish the season with only eight. Yes, eight.

If he continues playing the way he has, it would be the lowest home-run total of his career — even fewer than the nine he hit during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when teams played only 60 games.

Fernando Tatís Jr's HR drought overshadowed the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr isn't even on pace to hit 10 home runs this season...

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 1, 2026

How did this drop in power happen? Where is Guerrero Jr. missing at the plate?

His power this season has been the direct opposite of previous years, especially his 2021 MVP-calibre season. Through the end of May that year, he had already hit 16 home runs. He ended up turning it on in the second half of the season and finished with a career-high 48.

Guerrero Jr. is also on pace to post career lows in both slugging percentage and OPS.

He's still hitting the ball, but the statistics show that he's chasing more pitches than usual and not pulling the ball as much as he has in previous seasons.

Take 2021 for comparison. Guerrero Jr. had a pull rate of nearly 30 per cent, and his average exit velocity on batted balls was over 95.1 mph. In 2026, both numbers have dropped significantly. His exit velocity is down to 90.3, and he's pulling the ball less than 20 per cent of the time.

The stats indicate that Guerrero Jr. is finding himself behind on pitches and isn't hitting the ball as hard as he has in previous years.

Nick Turchiaro/Imagn Images

For a player whose offensive game has always been built on power, it's hard to ignore, especially considering he's in his first year of a 14-year, $500 million contract.

Fans have grown accustomed to seeing Guerrero Jr. punish MLB pitchers with one swing of the bat, but that version of him has not been present yet.

Despite Guerrero Jr.'s slower start, Toronto still find themselves in postseason contention with over 100 games still to play. As Guerrero Jr. showed to many Blue Jays fans last postseason, he can get hot in a hurry, so there's a bit of belief the offence will eventually come.