How soon the Toronto Raptors can clinch a playoff spot

For the first time in four years, the Toronto Raptors are fighting for a playoff spot with three games to go in the regular season.

The Raptors have a narrow lead over three teams for the sixth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

They're just 0.5 games up on the Philadelphia 76ers, one game ahead of the Orlando Magic, and 1.5 games up on the Charlotte Hornets. 

Only two games separate the teams from fifth from ninth.

Because the Raptors hold the tiebreaker over two of the three teams chasing them (Orlando and Charlotte), two more wins would automatically clinch a playoff spot for Toronto. That could come as soon as Friday against the New York Knicks.

The Raptors could also clinch by winning just one of their remaining three games, provided Orlando and Philadelphia each lose at least once.

Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes dunks over Miami Heat guard Kasparas Jakucionis during Tuesday night's 121-95 win at home. Nick Turchiaro/Imagn Images

Toronto has two more games at home before the regular season wraps up — Thursday against the Miami Heat and Sunday against the also tanking Brooklyn Nets, plus a tough road matchup against the Knicks sandwiched between on Friday.

Orlando has a game in hand on Toronto, beating the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. The Magic's final two games of their season are against the Chicago Bulls (30-49) and the Boston Celtics (54-25).

Philadelphia's next game is on Thursday against the Houston Rockets, then they play two feeble opponents in the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks—two teams who've already embraced improving their positions for the 2026 NBA Draft lottery.

There's a lot to be sorted out over the final few days of the 2026 season, but with Philadelphia having the easiest schedule, they remain to be the biggest threat to passing Toronto, especially if the 76ers beat the Rockets on Thursday.

Raptors seeding probabilities, according to basketball-reference

5th: 14.9%
6th: 53.7%
7th: 27.3%
8th: 3.9%
9th: 0.3%

— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) April 8, 2026

The Raptors could also move up to fifth, holding the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Atlanta Hawks, who sit a half-game ahead. The Hawks have a tough schedule down the stretch, facing the Cleveland Cavaliers (51-29) on Friday, and the Miami Heat (41-38) on Sunday.

The Knicks will be the biggest challenge for the Raptors in this final stretch. The Knicks have won the last 12 meetings, and Toronto haven't won on the road at Madison Square Garden since Jan. 16, 2023. As things stand, if Toronto also holds on to the sixth spot, the New York Knicks would be their first-round opponent.

Either way, the Raptors are in control of their own destiny in this final stretch with the playoff margin thinner than Gradey Dick's pre‑practice razors.