What the next 3 months of winter and spring weather in Ontario will look like

Ontario residents have endured extreme cold and record-breaking snowfall this winter, but it looks like conditions are expected to revert to near-normal as we enter the home stretch of winter and prepare for the spring season ahead.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released its three-month outlook for February to April, and while it will by no means be a balmy close to the season, Ontario residents can look forward to normal seasonal conditions for the transition from winter to spring.

The government weather agency plots out probabilities of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures and precipitation, offering an averaged-out glimpse at the months to come without drilling down into the specifics of weather systems.

According to the latest predictions, Ontario is looking at an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures from February through April. So, while we likely won't see an above-seasonal heatwave or another sustained period of sub-arctic temperatures in the province, there's a good chance that we will thread the proverbial weather needle for a very average late-winter-to-spring period.

Some areas of Ontario could see warmer-than-normal temperatures, including northern and western portions of the province, where ECCC predicts a 40-50 per cent chance of above-normal temps. Areas of central and eastern Ontario can expect a 40 per cent chance of near-normal temps.

Environment and Climate Change Canada

In terms of precipitation, much of the province can expect normal snow and rainfall for the coming months, with areas of central Ontario predicted to see a 40 per cent chance of below-normal precipitation, and the westernmost areas of the province at a 40 per cent chance of above-normal precipitation.

Environment and Climate Change Canada

In both of these maps, large swathes of the province are covered in white. According to ECCC, white map colouration "represents regions of 'equal chance' where forecast probabilities for none of the three categories exceed 40 per cent, and hence where the categories are nearly equally probable."

Essentially, ECCC boils this down to an explanation that "increasing occurrence of areas coloured in white over Canada implies diminishing ability of the forecasting system to make reliable and accurate predictions in these regions."

So, while parts of the province can expect a very normal season ahead, much is still up in the air (pun somewhat intended), and the forecast could change considerably in the weeks and months ahead.