What the next three months of winter weather will look like in Ontario

With a wild week of weather and snow showers ahead here in Ontario, you might be wondering what the next few weeks of winter will look like. Luckily, there's a new forecast that offers a closer look at what we can expect. 

Environment Canada released its latest seasonal outlook last week, as part of its recurring three-month forecast that analyzes meteorological trends over a particular season. 

The department's prediction system provides a probability-based look at national weather trends and temperatures, as opposed to identifying specific snowstorms or periods of precipitation. 

The new data covers the period spanning January to March 2026, and although the department doesn't guarantee its predictions will unfold this winter, the maps do provide some early signs for how the rest of the winter season could transpire. 

According to the graphs, the probability that southern Ontario will experience above-normal temperatures during this period is between 40 to 50 per cent, while northern parts of the province have a 50 to 60 per cent probability. 

The models suggest that most of the province is leaning toward above-normal temperatures overall this winter, as the probability of temperatures being near normal across Ontario is notably less, between 30 to 40 per cent. 

As a result, the probability of temperatures being below normal in southern Ontario between January and March 2026 is just 10 to 20 per cent. 

Although the department's models don't make predictions about precipitation, other long-range forecasts paint a picture of what the rest of the winter season could look like. 

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, southern Ontario will see regular rain and snow showers between Jan. 6 and Jan. 21. From Jan. 22 to Jan. 31, we can expect more snowy periods coupled with frigid temperatures. 

Overall, the average temperature in southern Ontario in January is expected to be -6.5 degrees C, which is 2 degrees C below average in the east, and 1 degree C above in the west. Precipitation totals are expected to be around 40 mm, which is 25 mm below average for the month. 

Throughout February, the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts that we'll see more snow showers and snowstorms; however, the average monthly temperature is expected to be around -2 degrees C (3 degrees C above average). Unlike January, precipitation totals in February are expected to be 20 mm above average, with a monthly total of 75 mm.