Here's what the next three months of winter weather will look like in Ontario

November was a wild month for Ontario weather-wise, with colder-than-expected temperatures and even a few surprise snow showers, and now a new forecast is offering a first look at what the next three months of winter have in store. 

Environment Canada released its latest seasonal forecast on Sunday, as part of its routine three-month outlook that aims to "forecast the evolution of meteorological trends over the next seasons." 

Unlike other long-range forecasts that try to identify individual storms or snowy periods, the federal climate agency's seasonal prediction system provides a broader, probability-based snapshot of national weather trends. Although the numbers don't exactly guarantee what will happen this winter, they do offer some early signs of how the upcoming season could unfold. 

The new data covers the period between December 2025 and February 2026, although, as with most advanced modelling, it remains difficult to accurately predict winter patterns this far out. 

Still, the agency's models suggest that much of Ontario is leaning toward near-normal temperatures this winter, although there are pockets where warmer or chillier conditions are more likely. 

According to the graphs, the probability of temperatures being above normal in southern Ontario throughout the next three months is 30 to 40 per cent, with some areas, specifically the Niagara region, having a 40 to 50 per cent probability of seeing warmer-than-usual temperatures. 

Despite this, another graph shows that the overwhelming majority of the province, aside from a small silver in the north, has a 30 to 40 per cent chance of seeing near-normal temperatures over the next three months. 

The probability of southern Ontario seeing temperatures below normal is between 20 to 30 per cent, while some areas in the north have a 0 to 10 per cent chance, except near Thunder Bay, where models indicate a 30 to 40 per cent probability of colder-than-normal conditions. 

It's worth noting that Environment Canada's seasonal system does not make predictions about snowfall, but other long-range outlooks can help piece together what the season might look like. 

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, December is expected to be bitterly cold throughout southern Ontario, with only a few short-lived mild spells to help break up the chill. The month's average temperature is expected to be around -6 degrees C, which is roughly 3 degrees C below normal, and precipitation is expected to reach about 50 mm, slightly below the monthly average of 55 mm. 

January, as it most often is, is shaping up to be a bit more unsettled. The Almanac forecast predicts a mixed stretch of flurries, rain, and snow showers, beginning with a bitterly cold start to the month. Temperatures are expected to turn mild from Jan. 6 to Jan. 21, before another dramatic drop around Jan. 22. 

The average temperature for the month is predicted to be -6.5 degrees C, which is roughly 2 degrees C below normal in eastern Ontario, but 1 degree C above normal in the west. Precipitation, however, is expected to be significantly lower than the typical January average of 65 mm, at only 40 mm.