summer fall forecast ontario 2025

Here's how the next few months of summer and fall weather will look in Ontario

Ontario residents who have already endured a sweltering summer 2025 should buckle up, as the trend of scorching above-normal temperatures is set to continue through the summer and into the fall months.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) shared new predictions this week that paint a very sweaty picture for the months ahead.

The government weather agency expects above-normal temperatures to continue in August, September, and October — and you might want to put your plans to dust off that fall wardrobe on pause for now.

There is still plenty of summer left to go, and it appears the hot weather experienced in the province for the past couple of months will be sticking around for the rest of the season.

August is shaping up to be another scorcher based on ECCC's latest forecast covering the probability of above or below normal temperatures. The July 31 forecast predicts that portions of the province have chances of above-normal temperatures ranging from 80 to 100 per cent.

summer fall forecast ontario 2025

ECCC

Ontario, along with Quebec and the Maritimes, are all expected to experience warmer-than-normal temps this month.

Looking forward, a new August 1 forecast from ECCC predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures will blanket the province into the fall.

The probability forecast calls for a 70 to 90 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures in the three-month period spanning August through October.

The modelling for these probability forecast maps uses climatology spanning from 1991 to 2020 to establish a baseline normal.

summer fall forecast ontario 2025

ECCC

ECCC's prediction stands in contrast with an earlier fall prediction that called for cooler temperatures to arrive this fall. 

The Farmers' Almanac Extended Fall Forecast for 2025, revealed in July, predicted a cool, dry start to the season followed by a "very unsettled" and cold end of fall.

Lead photo by

Sean Pavone/Shutterstock


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