Toronto temperatures could swing by almost 30 degrees in a wild week of weather
Toronto is already feeling the deep freeze on Wednesday morning as temperatures dip to the negative double-digits, and air temperatures feel as cold as -19 C.
But forecasts are calling for even colder temperatures to arrive in the city in the coming days, diving into the mid-negative-20s before wildly swinging back to well above freezing in a roller coaster ride of weather.
A clipper system will arrive in the region Thursday, and behind that low, meteorologists predict frigid cold to hit the Toronto area on Friday, though stances on just how low the mercury may plummet vary according to which weather model you follow.
The standard model used by The Weather Network forecasts a Friday daytime low of -15 C and an overnight low of -22 C. The alternative GFS model predicts an even colder peak of -24.2 C into Saturday morning.
It's important to note that neither of these models factor in the added cold of wind chill, which could make the air feel as frigid as the mid-negative 30s.
GFS predictions have been generating alarm since last week, when models forecast air temperatures so low they would break the record for the all-time coldest day ever recorded at Toronto Pearson Airport.
GFS advertising record cold temps on the morning of Groundhog Day, perhaps dropping below -30C for a large chunk of S ON and perhaps below -40C for cottage country and north. The groundhogs may just throw in the towel and not even emerge this year... #ONwx #GroundhogDay pic.twitter.com/22zGPwLyyK— David Piano (@ONwxchaser) January 24, 2023
Such forecasts continued to appear into the start of this week, though there seems to be some doubt that these menacing GFS predictions will materialize as modelled.
Last nights ECMWF run had a forecast low temperature of -34C (-29F) at Toronto Pearson Airport next Saturday morning, which would be the coldest temperature ever recorded in Toronto history. pic.twitter.com/cC4HpLtX6q— Ethan Sacoransky (@blizzardof96) January 29, 2023
The Weather Network has a less troubling outlook on how extreme this polar vortex may be for Toronto, stating that "the most likely scenario for temperatures early Saturday morning (Feb. 4)" will see the mercury dip below -20 in the GTA, while "eastern Ontario will plunge below -30 C."
Such extremes will make for an unpleasant Saturday in the city, but temperatures will swing upward almost immediately in an unusually abrupt weather transition.
The Weather Network reports that "after delivering a quick blast of frigid weather, winter will once again flee the scene," calling for "above-normal temperatures [that] will quickly spread across most of Canada again as we head into the second week of February."
Based on the Weather Network's model, a swing in temperatures could approach 30 degrees, going from -22 on the morning of Saturday, Feb 4. to 6 degrees above freezing on Feb. 7.
It will be a wild week of weather in Toronto, so prepare that wardrobe accordingly.
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