Monday, October 24, 2016Overcast 9°C

Latest poll shows Tory, Ford and Chow in dead heat

Posted by Derek Flack / July 23, 2014

rob ford pollThree months from the Toronto mayoral election, the latest poll puts the race at a dead heat between frontrunner candidates John Tory, Rob Ford and Olivia Chow. These new numbers suggest a boost for the incumbent relative to Chow, who's numbers have sharply declined since the company's last poll. According to Forum Research, the current breakdown of the vote is as follows: Chow (29 per cent), Tory (28 per cent) and Ford (27 per cent). Karen Stintz and David Soknacki trail well behind at six and five per cent respectively.

It bears noting that these results are heavily at odds with the most recent poll from Nanos, which put Tory in the lead and Ford a distant third. Consistent among Forum's previous three polls is Ford's approval rating, which hovers in the low 30s, well lower than the other leading candidates who come in at 54 (Chow) and 67 (Tory).

That could mean that it'll be difficult for Ford to further increase his numbers, but there was also little evidence to suggest that he would improve his chances after previous polls, and appears to have done so courtesy of a downturn from Olivia Chow -- at least according to Forum.

Assuming the poll is accurate, as the mayoral race comes down to the final stretch, it's still anybody's for the taking. That should prove exciting and perhaps a little scary.

Correction: An earlier version of this post indicated that Ford's polling numbers were on the rise, when in fact they've stayed consistent.

Photo by RadarContact in the blogTO Flickr pool.



Aaron / July 23, 2014 at 11:44 am
At least Ford will have huge support at his BBQ this Friday. Doubt the others trailing in the polls have that kind of support. Go Rob Go.
asdgag replying to a comment from Aaron / July 23, 2014 at 11:51 am
good one
Katz / July 23, 2014 at 11:55 am
Comparison of the two polls shows that Ford actually hasn't risen or gained any support, but rather Chow has merely lost her lead and fallen back to the pack, creating the three way tie.

Really poorly written post, showcasing a lack of basic reading comprehension.
Vinnie replying to a comment from Aaron / July 23, 2014 at 11:55 am
who cares if he's an incompent, lying homophobic racist? Yay for free burgers!!!!!!1 FERD MURR YURRS!
Vinnie replying to a comment from Vinnie / July 23, 2014 at 11:55 am
Matt replying to a comment from Brian / July 23, 2014 at 11:55 am
I see it's mostly Toronto's many racists who are still standing firmly behind their boy Ford.
p replying to a comment from Brian / July 23, 2014 at 11:56 am
.. of course the Ford supporter is racist.
Ugh / July 23, 2014 at 11:59 am
People wonder why his name keeps coming up in the news. This is why. We need to see these polls, so that those who want to vote for ABF (anyone but Ford) will do their due diligence and show up at the voting booths in October. If we don't, you can be sure that Ford Nation will, and we'll be stuck with this lying bully for another four years.
S / July 23, 2014 at 12:01 pm
Tory and Ford are leading? They're both right-wingers, for a City that has an entirely left wing core...
Derek replying to a comment from Katz / July 23, 2014 at 12:03 pm
This is true. I've updated the post to reflect this.
Luckysod / July 23, 2014 at 12:13 pm
Ford will rise -- and fall. I doubt he can make it to October without messing up, and there will be someone with a cell phone nearby.
Marcus / July 23, 2014 at 12:16 pm
Perhaps we've all under estimated the power of having the support of the criminal contingent in this city. That would explain it.
timemachine / July 23, 2014 at 12:18 pm
I really just wish the amalgamation of the "GTA" never happened. Then Toronto could have the Mayor they need and want. I am baffled that there are still people supporting this oaf. As an actual Toronto native I can really say I don't need a subway line in the middle of nowhere. I need the existing heavily concentrated TTC routes improved (not by decreasing service!) and downtown gridlock lifted.
Dogma replying to a comment from S / July 23, 2014 at 12:20 pm
Even in its core, a good chunk of Toronto is Liberal, not left-wing. And while right-wingers might be incapable of seeing the difference, I guarantee you those on the left do.

Anyway, we know Ford has his impenetrable base vote; the only question is how the Chow/Tory vote divvies up. It's an interesting election because Chow also has a hard-core base vote that won't go for anything that has a whiff of right wing and none of the top three are going to withdraw.
Dogma replying to a comment from Luckysod / July 23, 2014 at 12:22 pm
Honestly, at this point what can Ford DO to turn his supporters off? They've rode the crazy train this far; unless Ford climbs the CN tower and declares war on the airforce, I don't see his supporters giving up on him now.
freddiejohnson / July 23, 2014 at 12:28 pm
Mark my words, Ford will win again this year, unfortunately.
realityCheck / July 23, 2014 at 12:40 pm
@Timemachine...correction... the amalgamation of the GTA NEVER DID HAPPEN. What happened back in the 90s was the amalgamtion of the old city of Toronto with the entities that were part of Metropolitan Toronto -- namely York, East York, North York, Etobicoke and Scarborough.
Seymour / July 23, 2014 at 12:45 pm
Remember Hudak was also in a dead heat in the polls with Wynne in the provincial election? But then Wynne won a majority. Polls mean nothing... Ford will lose by 15-20%. Not all of Toronto is high on crack.
Chris / July 23, 2014 at 12:46 pm
So it appears that Ford is the beneficiary of the "free hamburgers" bounce in the polls. Good for him, I guess.
Jacob / July 23, 2014 at 12:56 pm
I guess passing off lies about Waterfront Toronto and pink umbrellas boosted his numbers after all. / July 23, 2014 at 01:02 pm
no surprise here, with no Smitherman on the ticket the homophobic voters have the choice of Chow and Tory.
Torontonian / July 23, 2014 at 01:08 pm
Amalgamation is creating a divide between the needs of the culturally diverse city proper and the suburbs.

In this race, you likely have wealthy suburbanites supporting Tory, working class suburbanites voting Rofo, and most of the diverse population who live in the actual CITY OF TORONTO supporting Chow.
Davy Gravy replying to a comment from Nancy Drew / July 23, 2014 at 02:32 pm
Speaking of "crazed, shrill and desperate," thanks for chiming in.
Ford + Chow / July 23, 2014 at 02:45 pm
For the first time Ford and Chow supporters want Ford to stay in the race.
Irwin Mimico (so to speak) / July 23, 2014 at 03:06 pm
I believe that Mr. Ford, after winning in October, will replace Harper as PM. Then he will take the next step and replace Schwartenegger as an action figure! FIM!
Carly / July 23, 2014 at 03:21 pm
Mark replying to a comment from Brian / July 23, 2014 at 03:40 pm
Give her a break her husband died. That's her platform and that's why she should be mayor.
Davy Gravy replying to a comment from Brian / July 23, 2014 at 03:45 pm
And I "love" how you seem to believe that expressing primitive, idiotic views like yours in public is still acceptable among civilized people in the 21st century.

So what's your position on the Ford campaign team?
Nick replying to a comment from Brian / July 23, 2014 at 04:00 pm
@Brian. Who cares. At least Chow will work like a dog on behalf of the city, unlike Ford ever did, with his 4 hour days and buggering off to coach football and do crack.
Red Queen Rob Ford-Rodney King Model / July 23, 2014 at 04:55 pm
Can't we all just get along? Bigots of the world unite! Vote Intolerance! Vote Fordfucker!
Irwin Mimico (so to speak) / July 23, 2014 at 04:58 pm
I'm tired of having tolerance shoved down my throat. Mind you, I'm also tired of colonoscopies, so maybe I'm just tired of having things shoved up me?
the lemur replying to a comment from C / July 23, 2014 at 05:27 pm
Yep. She still has better pronunciation and grammar than either of the Fords.

You'll never hear her say tooken, lieberry, dranken, etc.
Normal Toronto Voter / July 23, 2014 at 06:01 pm
I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore! Fuck the Fords to hell!
kn / July 23, 2014 at 06:23 pm
what a sad commentary on our electorate. Adam Vaughan somehow gets voted into federal politics and Rob Ford is somehow still in the running???
Toronto Mayor / July 23, 2014 at 07:02 pm
Let's dig up Nathan Phillips. He was really good. Dead, he'd be better than Ffoorrdd.
ScarboroughStudent / July 23, 2014 at 07:18 pm
It really upsets me that it is true that any Rob Ford supporter is either one of the following or a combination of multiple of the following:

1) Ill-informed
2) Undereducated or uneducated
3) Can also be Educated (but yet still ill-informed and really stupid)
5) Living below the Low-income cut off (even though the mayor they desire always votes against funding and any initiatives that can help the marginalized communities of Toronto)
6) Bigot (this includes racists, homophobes, sexists, etc)

I seriously thought that our city is better than that, guess I was wrong!

Brian replying to a comment from ScarboroughStudent / July 23, 2014 at 07:34 pm
if you're not hipster commie from the city they attack
Brian replying to a comment from ScarboroughStudent / July 23, 2014 at 07:36 pm
so get a few stupid tattoos, maybe a sailor anchor and a cupcake with a dolphin on it
hang out with a few gay ppl so you cant be called homophobic and of yes a fixie bike, checkered shirt or anything that makes you look like you're not trying to look cool and you should be fine
oh yes if male a lumberjack beard in the city
Brian / July 24, 2014 at 10:50 am
I'm really dumb!
Brian for Mayor! / July 24, 2014 at 10:52 am
So the bigots have a choice-Ford or Brian.
Irwin Mimico / July 24, 2014 at 12:16 pm
This shouldn't be a surprise. Support for mayor Ford will get even stronger as election day comes closer.
BMWnation / July 24, 2014 at 01:23 pm
Vote for me and I will get rid of all streetcars and bicycle lanes so the people who actually pay taxes can use their cars. The roads are partially funded by gasoline taxes, NOT by bicyclists who can't afford to put lights on their bicycle or buy a helmet to save their noggins.
Davy Gravy replying to a comment from Irwin Mimico / July 24, 2014 at 02:23 pm
Well, you're partly right, which probably doesn't happen too often. YOUR support for him will probably get stronger, even as it becomes increasingly obvious to everyone else, including the shrinking cadre of Ford dead-enders, that he'll be denied a second opportunity to ruin this city completely.

But look on the bright side. Once he becomes a private citizen again, your hero will have plenty of time on his hands to drink, smoke crack, smack Sandro Lisi around, and eat at home.
Irwin Mimico, Illiterati / July 24, 2014 at 05:14 pm
Not "would of"; would have. Irwin, did you really get in to high school?
Ken replying to a comment from Aaron / July 25, 2014 at 06:36 pm
They're having roast pig, I expect.
ScarboroughStudent replying to a comment from Brian / July 26, 2014 at 01:46 pm
Lol, See what I mean folks?

Brian, your reply to my comment clearly proves that you match the criteria that I listed in my comment. Congratulations. You sir are an imbecile.

Irwin Mimico (so to speak) / July 27, 2014 at 05:23 pm
Mommy, is Rob my real father?
Ali replying to a comment from Irwin Mimico (so to speak) / July 27, 2014 at 05:56 pm
I could tell you're from a broken home seeking attention. Poor you. I do not envy you.
ScarboroughStudent replying to a comment from Hey Scarboro Student / July 27, 2014 at 06:14 pm
Lol, calm down, I did notice the typographical error after I posted it. Sorry, I'm only a human being that makes mistakes. Someone's just a little too butthurt because they fall into the criteria themselves.


Scarborough Student.
That's not why my butt hurts. / July 27, 2014 at 08:49 pm
Guess why it hurts...good!
Pathetic Loser, a.k.a. Mayor Rob Ford / July 28, 2014 at 05:32 pm
Ford on the trash heap, October 27.
Throw Ford out with the other trash / July 29, 2014 at 12:32 pm
Ford Trash Day is October 27.
Red Queen Rob Ford / July 29, 2014 at 03:08 pm
Eat me! Not Drink me! If Ford Nation wants to kiss my ass, I let them!
Other Cities: Montreal