John Tory poll

New poll puts John Tory in command of mayoral race

The latest poll projecting the Toronto mayoral race puts John Tory comfortably in the lead. This survey, notably conducted by Nanos rather than Forum Research, has John Tory with 39.1 per cent of the vote, followed by Olivia Chow at 32.7 per cent and Rob Ford well behind at 21.7 per cent. The poll, based on a phone survey of 600 residents in early July, paints a very different picture than the one compiled by Forum during the same period. Not only does Tory show as leading Chow, but Ford's numbers plummet from the 26 per cent he enjoys on the company's July 2nd poll.

It's worth noting that the enterprise of polling has come under serious questioning over the last couple of years, and a divergence of this nature fits nicely into a narrative in which the prospect of gleaning anything accurate from surveys of this nature is suspect. It's also early in the election, even if it doesn't always seem that way.

So, take of these numbers what you will, but it's also worth bearing in mind, as John Tory staffer and former Rob Ford campaign manager Nick Kouvalis was so quick to point out, that it was Nanos who first projected Ford as the big favourite late in the last election. Bearing in mind the margin of error (plus or minus 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20), however, Tory's projected lead is nowhere near the one Nanos gave Ford way back when.

Photo by BruceK in the blogTO Flickr pool.


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