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New poll puts John Tory in command of mayoral race

Posted by Derek Flack / July 8, 2014

John Tory pollThe latest poll projecting the Toronto mayoral race puts John Tory comfortably in the lead. This survey, notably conducted by Nanos rather than Forum Research, has John Tory with 39.1 per cent of the vote, followed by Olivia Chow at 32.7 per cent and Rob Ford well behind at 21.7 per cent. The poll, based on a phone survey of 600 residents in early July, paints a very different picture than the one compiled by Forum during the same period. Not only does Tory show as leading Chow, but Ford's numbers plummet from the 26 per cent he enjoys on the company's July 2nd poll.

It's worth noting that the enterprise of polling has come under serious questioning over the last couple of years, and a divergence of this nature fits nicely into a narrative in which the prospect of gleaning anything accurate from surveys of this nature is suspect. It's also early in the election, even if it doesn't always seem that way.

So, take of these numbers what you will, but it's also worth bearing in mind, as John Tory staffer and former Rob Ford campaign manager Nick Kouvalis was so quick to point out, that it was Nanos who first projected Ford as the big favourite late in the last election. Bearing in mind the margin of error (plus or minus 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20), however, Tory's projected lead is nowhere near the one Nanos gave Ford way back when.

Photo by BruceK in the blogTO Flickr pool.

Discussion

42 Comments

Dean / July 8, 2014 at 07:30 am
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This is the best news I've heard since the mayoral race started!
Vote Tory!
Anne / July 8, 2014 at 08:37 am
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Yes politics is a game we know that, thanks.

Olivia Chow is going to get her wish of anyone but Ford after all.
Might as well start counting your eggs now replying to a comment from Anne / July 8, 2014 at 08:41 am
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The election is more than three months away
Andy / July 8, 2014 at 08:57 am
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Really!!?? More than 3 months away, I thought October 27th was next week? When did the calendar change?
Anne v2 / July 8, 2014 at 09:07 am
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Good. Tory should win.
Actually / July 8, 2014 at 09:08 am
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"New poll puts John Tory in command of mayoral race." Actually, Tory and Chow are within the margin of error in that poll. The pollster himself said Tory has a "marginal lead."
Shocking Revelations replying to a comment from Might as well start counting your eggs now / July 8, 2014 at 09:16 am
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What calendar are you using to come up with these shocking revelations? October 27th is more than 3 months away, please provide source to prove facts. What calendar are you using Gregorian? Solar? Lunar? Orthodox? Mayan?

Do tell!
Sam replying to a comment from Might as well start counting your eggs now / July 8, 2014 at 09:17 am
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So they ask 600 people and that's supposed to speak for the whole city?
John / July 8, 2014 at 09:18 am
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Anybody else curious as to why the Connivence store lobby group commissioned this poll?
iSkyscraper / July 8, 2014 at 09:31 am
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Hey, any poll that says Torontonians are no longer the dumbest, most gullible populace on earth is a good thing.

Anyone but the man-child.
mw replying to a comment from Sam / July 8, 2014 at 09:33 am
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You understand the concept of an opinion poll right?

bernie Q / July 8, 2014 at 09:34 am
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I know that Olivia Chow is an Asian woman; a voice that needs to be heard, I know that she is the wife of the late Jacky Layton but other than that I really don't have a clue what she stands for and what her campaign promises are. I know she will blab about people, families, torontonians but what about the real nitty gritty stuff that costs money?

Same thing with John Tory. So far all I know is that they aren't Robbie 'yeah I lied and I f*ed up again' Ford
Sam / July 8, 2014 at 09:35 am
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Yes. Call people in an area that you know have similar opinions to the outcome you want, and call them to get the story you want.
Monkey Bars replying to a comment from Actually / July 8, 2014 at 09:36 am
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Not to mention Ford's numbers from the Forum poll are all but within the margin of error in this poll... so they probably didn't "plummet".

Can't wait for another three-and-a-half months of hearing what people who still use landline phones might do.
mw replying to a comment from Sam / July 8, 2014 at 09:50 am
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And they know they have similar opinions by . . . calling them to ask them their opinions? Tin foil hat getting a little tight?
Sam replying to a comment from mw / July 8, 2014 at 09:55 am
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By knowing what is typically a conservative area, a liberal area, etc. By knowing which area's they've received the greatest response on the campaign trail. By knowing what areas they're own supporter mailing list is the heaviest in.
sj replying to a comment from Sam / July 8, 2014 at 10:01 am
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Yes, this is how statistical random sampling works. You survey a small-but-completely-RANDOM subset of the population and their results will very quickly regress toward the true mean of the population within a very reasonable standard error, especially for single, categorical questions like elections. What signifies the survey as truly random is where the trouble comes from, because when small biases are introduced they have a huge effect on the sample mean. This is probably why this specific firm has come under fire. While it may sound like witchcraft, I guarantee you that it's a highly reliable science and that your opinion, without being specifically requested, is buried in those numbers if sampling was done well.

Might as well start counting your eggs now replying to a comment from Shocking Revelations / July 8, 2014 at 10:06 am
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Gregorian
Might as well start counting your eggs now replying to a comment from Andy / July 8, 2014 at 10:07 am
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You thought October 27 was next week? that makes you pretty stupid doesn't it?
Shambo replying to a comment from bernie Q / July 8, 2014 at 10:16 am
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I assume if you're commenting on BlogTO that you have the internet. It's amazing what a little research will provide
yup replying to a comment from Shambo / July 8, 2014 at 10:26 am
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It's easier to pretend they don't have platforms. never mind the internet. if you watch the news or read a paper it's hard to miss.
Albin / July 8, 2014 at 10:33 am
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Nanos was the best of the Ontario election pollsters, by far, and was close on the final result. Chow's campaign is mistaken to go after Ford as it has. Ford is Chow's enemy's enemy and her friend: a revitalized Ford can split the suburban vote that's clearly going to Tory now. The Harris / Conservative gerrymander of amalgamated Toronto is destined to be majority right-wing forever, unless the burbs don't vote (as in the Miller years) or are divided on their motorcar and tax cut champion.
PeeWee / July 8, 2014 at 11:03 am
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Finally some good news!.. Chow would be worse and more polarizing than Ford would ever be and even less (if thats possible) would get done! Tory seems like the only intelligent choice!
steve replying to a comment from bernie Q / July 8, 2014 at 11:07 am
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Bernie, Olivia has a major interest in public housing.
She's an expect on the subject
Rob / July 8, 2014 at 11:15 am
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If Rob Ford quits or his support diminishes further someone is going to get an earful from Olivia Chow.
Protest the hero / July 8, 2014 at 12:51 pm
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Even though Chow is calling for Ford to resign, its actually the worse thing that could happen to her "anyone but Ford campaign.

ALSO all of the shirtless protesters calling for Ford to resign should let it go to polls. The Polls will tell Ford and his followers that we dont want him. If he resigns or gets booted out they will all still live their lie that he coulda shoulda woulda won if he was still in the race. Lets shut them up once and for all at the polls.
Fardass / July 8, 2014 at 01:03 pm
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So much for a Ford "comeback". He's floundering in the shallow waters. The Shirtless Jogger galvanized citizens to stand up to the Ford bullies once and for all. Their story may have been "cute" to Ford Nation, but it is old news and tired by now.
Fardass / July 8, 2014 at 01:03 pm
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So much for a Ford "comeback". He's floundering in the shallow waters. The Shirtless Jogger galvanized citizens to stand up to the Ford bullies once and for all. Their story may have been "cute" to Ford Nation, but it is old news and tired by now.
Irwin Mimico / July 8, 2014 at 01:28 pm
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These polls are useless. The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Rob Ford will rise back to the top. Fordnation will help make this happen. Ford more years!
Galvanized replying to a comment from Fardass / July 8, 2014 at 02:03 pm
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If you repeat it enough times maybe it will become true, is that what your thinking?
(ex) radio star / July 8, 2014 at 03:00 pm
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In a couple of weeks there's a new video of rob ford surfacing. And this time its going to make people think twice about letting their kids near him. As for voting for ford, that boils down to your personal ethics: do you want a sick, dirty, old man running our city?
Ford who? / July 8, 2014 at 05:25 pm
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Are you still going on about Ford? The rest of us have moved on already. Its a Tory vs Chow race.
Yesterday's Mayor / July 9, 2014 at 12:56 am
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Ford Who?
evan / July 9, 2014 at 02:29 am
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YES. SO REASONABLE.
sw / July 9, 2014 at 10:47 am
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YES! Tory for mayor. He's the only level-headed, progressive, fiscally conservative, business-minded candidate that our city needs.
bren / July 10, 2014 at 01:15 pm
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Why not just ask the toronto star who they want and then vote accordingly. The star went to a lot of trouble to smear Ford since he was first elected. I know Ford has problems, but he cares about the city and that has never changed.
Arthur Anderson / July 10, 2014 at 02:04 pm
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Are you going to vote? Check out voterlookup.ca. Its a simple, secure and convenient way to make sure you are on the list of voters for the upcoming municipal and school board elections.
realityCheck / July 10, 2014 at 02:51 pm
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Small sample size but this does seem to signal a significant jump for Tory... The ABC crowd (Anybody But Chow) have finally shifted their votes from Ford to Tory. This is not good news for Ford... or for Chow for that matter.
Greg / July 20, 2014 at 02:58 pm
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Been. Rob Ford does not give a rats ass about Toronto. The Star actually endured him when he first ran of council. Then they saw how destructive and dysfunctional he was, and along with brother Doug how embolden they became attempting to run the city as their personal fiefdom. Their war on progressive planing, the hallmark of Toronto over the past 35 years, on social services, transit planing, the waterfront, working people and the needy, people how ride bikes to get around, like my kids. No, they got everything they deserved from the Toronto Star, en en the Sun has had enough of their lies and deceit.
Doug Taylor replying to a comment from Monkey Bars / August 4, 2014 at 03:30 pm
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The use of landline phones skews the results? They have the hipster doofus cohort covered as well.
Doug Taylor replying to a comment from Greg / August 4, 2014 at 03:32 pm
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Bicyclists should learn how to ride and then they might not get run over....as much.
Delbert / August 15, 2014 at 06:32 pm
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Rob Ford good for hour comunnity. Him care bout we no matta wut. Go, rob, go!

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