Canadian traffic across U.S. border has taken unprecedented nosedive

Canadians are holding their ground in the U.S.-Canada trade dispute, with hundreds of thousands fewer people travelling to the U.S.

According to recent data from the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), the U.S. federal agency saw four million travellers arriving from Canada in February 2024. Those numbers include pedestrians and those who travelled by air, passenger vehicles and trucks.

However, a year later, CBP only saw 3.5 million travellers from Canada, a drop of around 500,000 compared to the same time last year. Those levels are almost as low as the 3.4 million people who travelled from Canada to the U.S. post-pandemic in February 2023.

A drop in Canadians driving to the U.S.

According to the CBP, in February 2024, there were 1.4 million crossings by passenger vehicles from Canada to the U.S. However, in February 2025, that number dropped to 1.2 million, equivalent to the post-pandemic numbers of 1.2 million vehicle crossings in 2023.

In February 2024, there were 2.7 million people who travelled from Canada to the U.S. by vehicle, but as of February 2025, that number saw a drop to just 2.2 million.

This could be attributed to less business-related travel, but leisurely cross-border shopping might have also taken a hit.

The 25 per cent surtax (in addition to other applicable duties) was slapped on certain American goods bought by shoppers when re-entering Canada.

In a sign of the damage to Canada and the U.S. trade relationship, the number of trucks crossing south of the border fell from 449,000 in February 2024 to 428,000 in February 2025.

Air travel trends

The number of travellers from Canada flying to the U.S. increased slightly by 50,000 passengers from 659,000 in February 2024 to 709,000 in February 2025.

However, several airlines are watching closely for a possible decline.

People from Ontario cancelling U.S. travel plans over political tensions https://t.co/F51fp34TmU

— blogTO (@blogTO) February 16, 2025

Air Canada stated in February that it's reducing the number of flights to the U.S. starting in March. Porter Airlines has also responded to these changes by saying that it's shifting its marketing focus and reducing promotions for its U.S. destinations.

Data from the CBP shows that cross-border travel generally increases from March onwards, peaking during the summer months before dropping again in September.

However, whether or not that trend will continue this year amid the ongoing U.S.-Canada trade war remains to be seen.