Toronto home prices could take another hit before the year is over

Home prices in Toronto could slide even further before the end of the year, as economic uncertainties continue to keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines.

According to Royal LePage's latest House Price Survey and Market Forecast, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA is expected to decrease two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same period last year.

The forecast comes just as home prices in the region continued to drop in the third quarter. The aggregate price of a home in the GTA fell 3.7 per cent year over year to $1,073,100, while prices declined 2.6 per cent compared to the previous quarter.

Breaking it down by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home in the GTA decreased 2.8 per cent year over year to $1,364,400, and the median price of a condominium dropped 4.1 per cent to $641,500.

In the City of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased by a more modest 0.5 per cent year over year to $1,071,500 in the third quarter, but fell 4.4 per cent compared to the second quarter.

The median price of a single-family detached home in Toronto declined 5.9 per cent year over year to $1,457,300, while the median price of a condominium edged up 0.4 per cent to $647,400.

Despite ongoing price declines, Royal LePage notes that the GTA housing market remains fairly balanced as buyers remain cautious.

"Sentiment is improving slowly, but broader economic uncertainty continues to foster caution, resulting in a market that is noticeably softer than 2025 and 2024," said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty.

"We expect activity will improve modestly through the final months of the year and into next spring, as buyers respond to tighter inventory and adapt to current conditions. As we look further ahead, we will continue to see a steady improvement in sales overall, though price growth will likely remain modest and uneven across the different property segments."

On a national scale, Canada's housing market has also experienced a slowdown, with sales activity flattening across most markets in the third quarter following a stronger start to the summer.

The forecast attributes part of the slowdown to renewed tariffs on Canadian goods imposed by the U.S., which it says have contributed to economic uncertainty and kept potential buyers from taking the plunge.

As a result, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 0.8 per cent year over year to $810,000 in the third quarter of 2026. The national median price of a single-family detached home fell 0.5 per cent year over year to $856,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased by 1.5 per cent to $571,900.

"The Canadian housing market has spent the past three months treading water, with home prices largely flat and national sales volumes on track to finish 2026 slightly below even the sluggish pace of 2025," said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.

"Autumn, the second-busiest season of the year, typically injects energy into the market. This year, economic uncertainty and concern that mortgage rates could move materially higher are keeping would-be buyers on the sidelines."