Toronto's hottest month of home sales in years is actually not what it seems

It appears as if Toronto's real estate market is finally starting to buck the acute, uncharacteristic downward trend that has defined it for many months.

Numbers from the last month of property sales in and around the city have arrived, and they show that the region is, as experts have predicted and hoped, indeed recovering from the unprecedentedly weak sales numbers and record-high inventory levels that it's experienced so far this year.

According to the data, released in a report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) on Wednesday, 10.9 per cent more homes changed hands over the course of July 2025 than during July 2024 — the first year-over-year increase in sales period since fall 2024.

This is also the first time since last November that sales have outpaced the number of new listings. While this report still details a 5.7 per cent uptick in the number of homes hitting the market last month (compared to the same time last year), earlier in the year, this number was as bad as 48.6 per cent amid declining sales, setting a new ceiling for the gap between supply and demand.

But, TRREB's assertion that last month marked "the best home sales result for the month of July since 2021" in the city, the picture isn't quite as sunny as stakeholders want to lead on.

Toronto's housing market has completely fallen off a cliffhttps://t.co/SFTTlmx44F

— blogTO (@blogTO) July 4, 2025

While it is true that July 2025 saw the largest year-over-year jump in the number of condos and houses sold in the region out of any July since 2021, the actual volume of transactions was far lower than that time: 6,100 last month vs. 9,390 in July 2021.

There is also the fact that we are still in a period of double-digit year-over-year growth in the number of active property listings (26.2 per cent). Though the picture isn't nearly as bad as earlier in the year, there are still upwards of an astounding 30,000 homes for sale in the GTA at the moment — more than double the 15,018 listings we had in July 2021.

Prices are also creeping down as a result, with the average home now selling for 5.5 per cent less than it would have at the same time last year, with condo price deterioration leading the pack.

Chart of the GTA real estate market's data for July 2025 from TRREB's latest Market Watch report.

Still, TRREB write that this "improved affordability, brought about by lower home prices and borrowing costs, is starting to translate into increased home sales."

"More relief is required, particularly where borrowing costs are concerned, but it's clear that a growing number of households are finding affordable options for homeownership," they add.