Experts losing confidence that Toronto's housing market is going to heat back up

Realtors and homeowners are likely rejoicing as action slowly returns to at least some parts of Toronto's real estate market, but while certain stakeholders assert prices will only go up as we move through the end of 2024, others don't see the city recovering so quickly from months of record low sales amid high inventory.

In a new outlook for fall, RE/MAX Canada continues the trend of those with skin in the game promising a bounceback of buyer demand as interest rates ease. But, this prediction for the majority of the rest of Canada does not apply to the Toronto area, per their estimates.

Such a stupid market. 😐

— Sal (@seeweed_owns) August 6, 2024

"With the long-anticipated decline in interest rates finally starting to materialize, early indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada suggest steady housing market activity this fall," the firm wrote Tuesday, stating that 76 per cent of regions across the country will see a one to six per cent spike in average sold prices.

But, it adds that there are some significant exceptions to this slight upward trajectory, including Toronto, Hamilton, Burlington and Kitchener-Waterloo, "where a moderate decline between two and three per cent is expected."

Places like London and North Bay are set to see neither a noteworthy increase or decrease in values.

For the 6ix specifically, the report projects prices to fall about two per cent by year's end when compared to the end of 2023, hitting $1,093,483 — still a ridiculous amount compared to almost anywhere else in the world, even if lending rates ease further.

Surrounding locales will see similar low single digit dips, according to RE/MAX, though the typical house or condo in Mississauga, Brampton, York Region and Burlington will remain well over the $1 million mark.

RE/MAX Canada says the average price of a residence in Toronto will be two per cent lower at the end of 2024 than the end of 2023, which is still a mighty high $1,093,483.

"Although some homebuyer confidence is starting to return, buyers in Toronto remain hesitant as affordability continues to be a challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers," the experts state.

With this in mind, along with factors like the high volume of homes available for sale, they forecast the city to stay in a "balanced" state where would-be buyers have a bit more choice and sway than desperate sellers versus how things have historically been.