Ontario cottage prices all over the place but here's where they're cheapest

Young people in the GTA hardly have any hope of owning a home here, let alone a second vacation property. But with housing markets struggling across much of the country, one may wonder where Ontario cottage prices sit right now.

Realty giant Royal LePage just released a report on the state of coveted waterfront markets like Muskoka, which includes some expert forecasts for what's ahead for cottage country.

Amid the present economic circumstances, which include a forthcoming recession, tariff woes and ongoing cost of living issues, people are far less confident about purchasing property, the company writes, than they were last year.

Per its own data sourced from a nationwide survey, some 19 per cent of prospective buyers and current owners in Canada are holding off on buying or selling until there is "further clarity" regarding the Canada-U.S. trade war.

Here's how the Canada-U.S. trade war could impact buying a home in Toronto https://t.co/wCM4FE5eBu

— blogTO (@blogTO) March 16, 2025

When it comes to cottages in particular, 57 per cent of respondents said that an affordable price has become a non-negotiable criterion for them when looking at these types of properties.

And, while 34 per cent of those surveyed said they still consider buying a cabin to be a good investment, 19 per cent of those who already have one are looking to sell, whether because of the economy or the recent tightening of short-term rental rules in some areas that limit income generating potential to cover such a costly expenditure.

Now, getting beyond people's sentiments and into the numbers, which are, frankly, all over the place.

Some locales in the north part of Southern Ontario are seeing surging prices and more cottages switching hands than this time last year, while others are the complete opposite, or a mix.

Looking at Q1 2025 vs the same period in 2024, based on Royal LePage's figures, the most expensive place in this region to buy is Simcoe County, where the average price is a hefty $2,095,000. (This is 4.5 per cent more than last year, despite there being 14.3 per cent fewer sales.)

Prince Edward County, Orillia and Niagara-on-the-Lake are also up there, with mean prices of $1,199,409, $1,031,882 and $925,000, which respectively signify year-over-year changes of +20.1 per cent, -16.6 per cent, and -5.6 per cent. (Told you it was all over the map!)

Sales volumes in these areas shifted by 22.2 per cent (PEC), 25 per cent (Orillia) and -57.1 per cent over the same time period.

Chart of the most recent average prices for a home in different parts of Ontario cottage country, and forecasts for the end of 2025, from Royal LePage's 2025 Cottage and Cabin Trends Report.

On the more affordable end, if you can brave a longer drive, you could buy a vacation home in Northwestern Ontario, where Royal LePage estimates the typical place will run you just $443,400, which is a 5.2 per cent decrease from last year amid a staggering 50 per cent drop in property sales.

Also relatively inexpensive are Greater Sudbury, with an average price of $494,632, which is actually 12.8 per cent more than last year despite a 9.3 per cent decrease in sales, and Grand Bend, where the standard property is $688,840, which is a whopping 20.3 per cent lower than the average price last April, as sales have fallen 25 per cent in a year.

The third-cheapest Ontario market for a cottage, per the firm, is Peterborough County, home of the Kawartha Lakes, where the average real estate price is now $711,000, a reduction of 2.2 per cent from last year, and where sales numbers have dipped 7.1 per cent year-over-year.

As far as Royal LePage's realtors predict prices going, they are forecasting the largest price declines in Grand Bend by the end of the year (of -8 per cent), followed by Niagara-on-the-Lake (-6 per cent) and Muskoka (-4.5 per cent).

As they write, "markets don't like uncertainty, and we're seeing that sentiment manifest in a quieter-than-normal spring market across recreational and traditional residential properties alike. We are optimistic that recreational activity could pick up later this season, but there's a big 'but' looming."

Of course, if you're really looking for a deal on a property in Canadian nature, you're best off heading to the east coast, where a home costs as little as $116,875 in South Shore, Nova Scotia, and where the mean price and sales activity are falling or staying flat.