Toronto housing market finally cools down but experts say it won't stay that way
Home sales just dropped in Toronto for the third consecutive month, newly-released MLS data shows, suggesting that recent demand surges caused by COVID may have settled down... for now.
While up on a year-over-year basis, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reports that home sales actually fell across the region between May and June of 2021, from 11,951 transactions to 11,106.
It may look like a rather miniscule drop (about 9.1 per cent, when seasonally adjusted), but the fact that GTA sales went down at all is significant considering that they rose by a staggering 78.7 per cent between May and June of 2021 (again, on a seasonally adjusted basis).
Sales were still up by about 28.5 per cent year-over-year though, with condos showing the most growth.
JUST RELEASED! TRREB updates its sales forecast and average list price upwards. PLUS new research shows potential land transfer tax hike would hurt all buyers and sellers. Access TRREB’s latest Market Watch Report to learn more.— Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (@TheReal_TRREB) July 6, 2021
HERE: https://t.co/CiONdrCTgq#TRREB #MarketWatch pic.twitter.com/JbpPbW0WdJ
In a sales forecast released on Tuesday, TRREB predicts that "sales do appear to have peaked this year" after reaching new record highs this spring and that, "on a month-over-month basis, both actual and seasonally adjusted average prices edged lower in June."
Lower doesn't mean any less ridiculous, however: On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the average GTA home price remained close to flat around $1,089,536 (that's for all home types, including condos).
Year-over-year, prices were up, but as TRREB notes, "the annual rate of increase moderated compared to the previous three months."
That's not to say that these trends will necessarily continue, or that they're consistent across all parts of the GTA and property types.
The TRREB sales numbers are in for June and the average price of a home in Toronto was up by 5.6%. The number of days the average property is on the market is an astonishing 14 days. The market mayy not be as crazy as it was in March, but it's still busy! pic.twitter.com/eAPl3NzrPA— Michael O'Brien (@MichaelOBHouses) July 6, 2021
Prices for semi-detached homes actually dropped by 1.9 per cent in the City of Toronto, month-over-month. The same category in 905 regions, on the other hand, saw prices go up by 21.5 per cent.
"We have seen market activity transition from a record pace to a robust pace over the last three months. While this could provide some relief for home buyers in the near term, a resumption of population growth based on immigration is only months away," says TRREB president Kevin Crigger.
"While the primary focus of policymakers has been artificially curbing demand, the only longterm solution to affordability is increasing supply to accommodate perpetual housing needs in a growing region."
Said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer, similarly: "A persistent lack of inventory across most segments of the market will keep competition between buyers strong, resulting in an average selling price well above $1 million through the end of 2021."
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