What the next three months of summer weather will look like in Ontario

With a massive heat wave settling over Ontario this week, you're probably wondering if the rest of the summer will be just sizzling. Spoiler alert: it most likely will be. 

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) just released its three-month temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts, which cover the stretch between July and September 2026. 

According to the federal department, its prediction system aims to "forecast the evolution of meteorological trend over the next seasons," but does not highlight any major weather-related events or periods of heavy precipitation. 

Based on its forecast models, temperatures are expected to vary just slightly across Canada throughout the summer, but most regions, including southern Ontario and the GTA, are expected to experience above-average temperatures. 

ECCC's first map shows that the majority of southern Ontario, including the GTA, is looking at a 70 to 80 per cent chance of above-average warmth during this period, while some areas of the province, including southwestern Ontario, have a 60 to 70 per cent chance. 

Northern areas of Ontario are looking at an even greater probability of above-average temperatures, between 80 and 100 per cent. 

The department's second map shows the probability of near-normal temperatures across the country throughout the three-month period, and (as expected from the results of the first map), southern Ontario and the GTA are looking at a 20 to 30 per cent chance of near-normal conditions.

On the other hand, northern parts of the province have a 0 to 20 per cent chance of experiencing near-normal temperatures.

The last map confirms the department's findings that most of Ontario is in for a hotter-than-usual summer. In the third map, practically every part of the province (minus a small sliver in southwestern Ontario) is looking at a 0 to 10 per cent chance of experiencing below-normal temperatures between July and September. 

Despite this, it's important to note that an earlier summer 2026 forecast released by The Weather Network characterized this year's season as "noncommital" and "inconsistent." 

Although the weather channel noted that final temperatures might close out near the seasonal mark, southern Ontario is still expected to see below-normal temperatures this summer. 

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, the average temperature in southern Ontario in July is expected to be 21 C, which is 1 C below average in the east and 1 C above in the west.