Here's how weather could impact High Park cherry blossoms for 2026

The weather in Toronto has been quite literally all over the place this past week, swinging from wind chills in the minus teens to mid temperatures in the mid-teens, and that volatility could already be having an impact on the cherry blossom trees in High Park. 

Local cherry blossom legend, Sakura Steve, has been closely tracking the blooms through regular updates on his website, Sakura in High Park, and documenting the buds' development as the season progresses. 

In his second update of the season on March 21, he noted that the cherry blossom buds continued to "look great in the current first stage of development." During this visit, the buds had maintained their bronze colour with light-coloured tips and had started to swell slightly compared to the previous week. 

However, in his latest update on March 27, progress has appeared to slow. "There wasn't much difference in what I saw today compared to my last visit, but notably, a few trees showed the slightest hints of the next stage," Sakura Steve wrote on his website. 

"A select few buds were showing bright green tips, an indicator of the Second Stage. The trees are waiting for warmer temperatures before they fully move on to the next stages." 

The expert notes that the weather will be the most important factor moving forward in deciding how quickly or slowly the trees will progress from bud to blossom. Unfortunately for the trees, temperatures are expected to fluctuate significantly this week, with colder days followed by sudden warm-ups before dropping again. 

As Sakura Steve notes, some days could even see swings of up to 10 C between highs and lows, on top of multiple rounds of rain. 

"Yes, rain is good for spring, but too much rain can also hamper the trees, progress a bit, as they prefer sunnier conditions to help them grow. Too much moisture can invite rot, disease, and insects seeking shelter from the rain." 

Historically, cherry blossom trees at High Park typically reach peak bloom between late April and early May, so we still have a few weeks of development to get through before crowds begin flocking to the park. 

According to the High Park Nature Centre, cherry blossom trees peaked on May 3 in 2025, April 22 in 2024, April 20 in 2023, and May 5 in 2022. Over the past two decades, the earliest peak bloom recorded was in 2012 on April 13, while the latest came in 2014 on May 14. 

For now, we'll just have to patiently keep our eyes on the weather and hope that spring eventually settles down long enough to provide the perfect conditions for the trees to bloom.