Parts of Ontario could see temperatures as high as 20 C this week

Following a long and icy winter, southern Ontario could get an early taste of spring this upcoming weekend as mild air pushes north from the U.S., offering some much-needed relief from the heavy precipitation and frigid conditions we've been enduring over the last few weeks. 

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), temperatures could rise above seasonal norms this weekend, with some areas in southwestern Ontario possibly even reaching the low 20s. 

Based on these prediction models, the GTA is set to see temperatures range in the mid-teens. 

Update on the expected warmup 👇

All systems are a go for a pattern change starting *mid week*

Mild air will finally surge north, bringing above normal temps to all of Southern #Ontario

Have been getting messages about a "March Heatwave"- see where that came from and give your… https://t.co/nAZNNnqPuS pic.twitter.com/9e0RCMmA8z

— WxOntario (@WxOntario1) March 1, 2026

A Weather Network report released on Sunday also notes that regions such as Windsor and London, along with other pockets of southwestern Ontario, have the greatest chance of seeing highs approaching 20 C, with local factors like elevation and distance from the Great Lakes giving these areas a temperature advantage. 

"These crude long-range temperature models could sniff out the above-seasonal trend, but will fail at predicting the precise maximum temperatures, which are highly dependent on wind direction," the report reads. 

The burst of mild weather is set to arrive as early as Friday, although not all parts of the province are expected to feel the warmth at once. 

"A chilly east (or south) wind off of Lake Ontario could squash any prospective boost in temperatures. The lake temperatures are sitting just a hair above freezing, so Toronto's warmth depends entirely on whether a low-pressure system can lift far enough north to flip winds to a southwesterly direction," the report continues.

However, if the "timing and wind direction pan out," Toronto could see daytime highs reach the upper teens. 

"When you check your Weather Network app, you're getting a more conservative blend of model solutions. It's far from a guarantee, but the odds increase the further you reside from the shoreline."

According to The Weather Network's current 7-day forecast for Toronto, a high of 11 C and 13 C is expected in Toronto on Saturday and Tuesday, respectively. Meanwhile, in Windsor, Environment and Climate Change Canada is currently predicting a high of 16 C on Saturday. 

Despite this brief burst of pleasant weather, The Weather Network warns that snowstorms in Ontario are still common throughout March. Toronto averages roughly 18 centimetres of snow in an average March, although temperatures climb relatively quickly.

In Toronto, the city's average high on March 1 is 2 C, and increases to 9 C by the last day of the month.