Parts of Ontario could be slammed with over 40 cm of snow this week

Ontario could be hit hard by a major snowstorm this week, with some weather forecasts predicting that areas of the province could be digging out from upwards of 40 centimetres of snow by the weekend.

A Clipper system approaching from the west could slam into the Greater Toronto Area and Niagara Region on Thursday, Jan. 15, and Friday, Jan. 16, bringing double-digit deposits of snow and bringing the potential for major disruption on roads and at airports.

According to the American GFS (Global Forecast System) model used in North American weather reporting, Toronto residents can expect moderate snowfall on Thursday and Friday in the range of 10 centimetres. 

Meanwhile, the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) calls for a much more intense local snowfall, exceeding 30 centimetres in some areas.

On the ECMWF model, some parts of the region are expected to be hit with shocking totals approaching 47 centimetres.

The 🇪🇺 model is on its own island with this DOOZY of a storm for the #GTA, #Niagara and Eastern #Ontario Thursday/ Friday

Has the Wednesday Clipper re developing and aging down a swath of 20-40+cm

Right now, it's the only model that's been showing this (since yesterday)

Will… pic.twitter.com/Jtb5uOhZbn

— WxOntario (@WxOntario1) January 12, 2026

While the ECMWF and the GFS have a lot in common, the European model works in higher resolution and offers down-to-the-hour forecasting. Downsides include higher operating costs, but the European system has clear advantages over the GFS system popular in Canada.

If the huge dump of snow forecast does indeed strike Toronto, the resulting chaos on the roads could be compounded by a planned TTC closure affecting subway service this weekend.

Regardless of the forecasting model, the coming storm will give locals a bit of weather whiplash, coming just days after a wild temperature swing in Toronto that brought record-breaking heat in the teens.