New fall and winter forecast predicts an extended autumn season for Toronto
While fall weather may have arrived quicker than anyone was prepared for in Toronto, a newly released forecast predicts that the city will see an extended autumn season with mostly pleasant, above-seasonal temperatures over the next couple months.
Earlier today, Weather Network meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham released Canada's 2020 fall forecast and exclusive winter preview.
While fall weather has arrived ahead of schedule for many Canadians, does this mean the cold is right around the corner?🍂❄— The Weather Network (@weathernetwork) September 14, 2020
Our #FallForecast has your regional outlook for the next three months PLUS an early look at winter 👉 https://t.co/opeMJVYEfr
"While it is true that fall weather has arrived ahead of schedule (with the exception of B.C. and parts of Atlantic Canada), we are not in a free fall into winter," wrote Gillham in the forecast.
"We expect that October and November will feature extended periods of mild fall weather and a delay in the arrival of consistent winter weather across most of the country."
The forecast states that extended periods of pleasant fall weather are expected over the next few months in both Ontario and Quebec, and above-seasonal temperatures are also expected to dominate.
"This should be ideal for enjoying the fall foliage and a variety of outdoor activities," wrote Gillham.
In Ontario specifically, November is expected to be much milder than last year, according to the forecast, which saw winter-like weather way ahead of the official beginning of the season.
Gillham says many residents of southern Ontario, including much of the GTA, saw their biggest snowfall of the cold weather season last year on Nov. 11 — which is in stark contrast to what's expected for November 2020.
Looking ahead to winter, a developing La Niña is expected to be one of the key drivers of our winter patterns, which means that ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are a few degrees cooler than normal.
This could mean different things for winter weather across Canada, but meteorologists expect that it will result in fewer and shorter outbreaks of severe cold in the Great Lakes region, as well as warmer-than-normal temperatures and below normal ice coverage on the Great Lakes.
Still, high-impact snow and ice storms in Ontario could possibly be caused by La Niña as we get into the heart of winter, though it's still too early to know for sure.
"Unfortunately, it is still too early to know exactly where that storm track will set up and it is likely that it will vary in its position through the winter," wrote Gillham.
"Between now and the release of our final winter forecast at the end of November, we will fine-tune the forecast and seek to get a better handle on where the dominant storm track will be. That will be the key to whether the upcoming winter is simply mild or whether it turns messy and wild."
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