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Latest Toronto election poll shows a tight race

Posted by Derek Flack / April 16, 2014

toronto election pollEarly polling is a dubious indicator of who will ultimately win an election, but as far as trends go, it's becoming clear that the Toronto mayoral race is going to be a tight battle between its three frontrunners. In the latest poll, conducted by Forum Research for The Toronto Star, Chow leads the pack with 34 per cent of respondents, followed by Ford at 27 per cent, and Tory at 24 per cent. Karen Stintz and David Soknacki, meanwhile, lag behind at six and four per cent.

The 10 per cent gap between Chow and Tory might seem rather large, but the Star points out that the demographics of each candidate's supporters should narrow Chow's advantage come election. Tory polls well with older voters who are more likely to make a trip to the polls, while the opposite is true of Chow.

The poll also asked after respondents second choice for mayor, which, if nothing else, offers insight into Ford's base of support, 82 per cent of whom didn't have a second preference. Chow and Tory's numbers, on the other hand, hover between 29 and 44 per cent. There aren't really any surprises here, but John Tory's competitiveness must have a few members of Ford Nation worried.

The one-day phone-based poll involved 882 residents, and is considered accurate within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Discussion

46 Comments

Zoopdah / April 16, 2014 at 12:30 pm
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I never answer these polls. Do you? Bottom line, if you vote Ford, you're an idiot. Seems there are at least 238 idiots who answer polls.
jeffy / April 16, 2014 at 12:32 pm
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I'm a Tory supporter, but if I see that Rob Ford has any chance of winning in October, I will switch my vote to Chow. Sadly its all about getting rid of Ford at this point to not make our city more of a laughing stock than it already is.
Alexander replying to a comment from jeffy / April 16, 2014 at 12:36 pm
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LOL - Nice Troll...given that Tory and Chow are literally on opposite sides of the political spectrum, I doubt very much you are anything but a Chow supporter trying to convince Tory types that Chow (ugh) is a better option than Ford.

Ford may be a drunk, crack addict and horrible human being but Olivia Chow would run this city in debt, debt, debt and more debt. The NDP are a wonderful oppositon party and absolute horror in government. Ontario took years to recover from Bob Rae and Chow is to the left of David Miller! Toronto needs her like it needs a brain tumour.
lowrez / April 16, 2014 at 12:37 pm
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Soknacki supporter, but if Ford doesn't absolutely tank as expected, I'm switching to Chow.
What! / April 16, 2014 at 12:38 pm
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Ford has 27%...
can it be that it was all so simple replying to a comment from Alexander / April 16, 2014 at 12:39 pm
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Tory isn't as right as you think and Chow isn't as left as you think but enjoy your toronto sun you one dimensional bastard.
Sockittoem / April 16, 2014 at 12:42 pm
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Derek: it's SOKnacki, not SOCKnacki. Unless of course you're referring to his sock puppet alter ego...
Steve / April 16, 2014 at 12:48 pm
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Unbelievable that that many people are stupid enough to still be voting for Ford. By far the worst mayor in the history of the city and at this point I think those people are either completely braindead or WANT Toronto to fail.
Gustav0 / April 16, 2014 at 12:48 pm
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Debt has increased under Ford. And infrastructure has gotten worse.
Bob But Not Doug / April 16, 2014 at 12:49 pm
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Mike Harris did far more damage to this province, and city, than Bob Rae's government did. But Ford supporters would vote for a ham sandwich that promised to save them $20 while the city around them crumbled.
Todd Toronto / April 16, 2014 at 12:57 pm
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Kudos to the hand in the photo for shooting his iPhone video HORIZONTALLY, the way you're supposed to.

Everyone else should take a lesson from that person. If you're shooting video on your phone, don't hold it up.
Randy / April 16, 2014 at 01:02 pm
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And if everyone jumps their own ships at the last minute to vote Chow just to get Ford out, we'll all complain about her and how she only got in because we were trying to keep Ford out an complain about her spending and policies that we don't agree with.

Similar to how Ford got in, not saying Chow will act or behave anything like Ford just that we'll accept second best again.
CurbAlert! replying to a comment from Gustav0 / April 16, 2014 at 01:06 pm
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Ford inherited the city in "as is" condition, now were just putting it out as a Curb Alert take it if you want it.
Mike / April 16, 2014 at 01:09 pm
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Switching from Tory to Ford. Not going to waste my vote on Tory and rather have Ford than Chow. Chow can't be trusted with public money.
lesson / April 16, 2014 at 01:13 pm
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Anyone in the market research industry will tell you that today phone polls have huge inaccuracies in sampling.

If you do a phone poll you are only going to reach a subset of the population:
- Someone over 55
- Likely retired
- Cell phone penetration among younger people is very high, and no land line homes for those under 35 is high so no young people as most of these lists are for landline only
- A woman, because most often the mom, not the dad, answers the phone first

Point being, polls 6 months in advance of an election done by phone as a big waste of money and don't mean anything come October.
Tony replying to a comment from jeffy / April 16, 2014 at 01:27 pm
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I agree with Jeffy. That's basically my line of thinking. I'm in the anyone-but-Ford camp, so I'll support Chow or Tory (or whoever has the most potential to beat Ford).
OliviaCiao / April 16, 2014 at 01:29 pm
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"Mayor Ford its time to take the tents down from the circus at city hall" jajajajajjaja
MER1978 replying to a comment from Mike / April 16, 2014 at 01:40 pm
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Hilarious (or maybe sad) when people use the words trust or honest and Ford in the same sentence... the man literally can't get through a sentence without lying or spreading misinformation.
Brent / April 16, 2014 at 01:46 pm
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I've had at least 2 Forum robopolls at home over the last year. The most recent one was maybe 2 or 3 weeks ago. I am mid-30s but do have a landline. And definitely not one of Ford's 27%. Leaning toward Soks but might be convinced by Chow.
jen replying to a comment from Alexander / April 16, 2014 at 01:50 pm
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I think you are forgetting the fact that the mayor is only one vote on council. She can't spend spend spend if the other councillors vote against it...and there are a lot of conservative councillors out there. Screaming "NDP!" all the time is just tilting at windmills.

I am another person that would vote for either Tory or Chow. I think either one of them would be just fine, and a million times better than Ford.
lowrez replying to a comment from OneWithTheUniverse / April 16, 2014 at 02:04 pm
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"is the ones"?
lowrez replying to a comment from OneWithTheUniverse / April 16, 2014 at 02:04 pm
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SUN reader detected.
lowrez replying to a comment from OneWithTheUniverse / April 16, 2014 at 02:05 pm
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"reader" lol
MER1978 replying to a comment from OneWithTheUniverse / April 16, 2014 at 02:10 pm
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Actually no the Star commissioned (paid) for it... Forum Research which has put out numerous polls which made Ford look good conducted it.
Trolls for Ford / April 16, 2014 at 02:22 pm
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Ford's a troll, so it makes sense. Troll Nation!
jeffy replying to a comment from Alexander / April 16, 2014 at 02:23 pm
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How clever would I be if what you said was true. Actually, I'm one of those idiots who voted for Rob Ford in 2010 because I was angry about the garbage strike and sick of letting unions walk all over our city. I'm far from happy about Olivia being the only option to beat him. But given the shame Rob has caused this city http://www.robfordfacts.ca, I will vote for Olivia Chow to avoid more embarrassment. Olivia is only one vote on council, but the world is watching Rob Ford.
#FordMoreYears / April 16, 2014 at 02:59 pm
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Join Ford Nation THURSDAY NIGHT for the Rob Ford re-election campaign kick off April 17th, 6:30pm 650 Dixon Road


FORD NATION THEME SONG WILL BE THE SONG OF THE SUMMER!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF9jsI8id7E

Show support, show love, Ford more years
Dan I. Mimico / April 16, 2014 at 03:15 pm
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These "polls" don't mean squat! I'm pretty sure their not calling the home owners here in etobicoke, north york or Scarborough.
Dan I. Mimico, Professional Poll Analyst / April 16, 2014 at 03:46 pm
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Yessiree!! Dan I. Mimico(DIM to his friends) really go that one right! Very impressive! Now, what does DIM have to say about the confidence levels? FordFamilyFarters want to know!
mar replying to a comment from lowrez / April 16, 2014 at 03:51 pm
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amazing
Danielle I. Mimico / April 16, 2014 at 04:03 pm
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Dan I. Mimico a.k.a. DIM
REALness / April 16, 2014 at 04:05 pm
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Polls only matter when your candidate is in the leading position. Remember how y'all were saying polls aren't true and aren't real when Ford was in the lead. Ah Ha... is that still the case or are the a true representation now the Chow is in the lead.
Sunny / April 16, 2014 at 04:14 pm
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I bet this poll didn't reach out to overseas voters in Hong Kong? They are in Chow's back pocket and ready to pounce. Once included she's probably more at a 40-50% approval.
steve replying to a comment from CurbAlert! / April 16, 2014 at 04:51 pm
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Toronto was in terrific shape when Ford took over. The KPMG that Ford had the city pay millions for has concluded that. Miller inherited a mess from Mel Lastman and Mike Harris, that cost money to fix. You cannot cut a budget when a city has grown by 300k it will 3 Million by the end of the decade.
Fords fiscal policies will not be felt for a number of years, it will be very expensive to correct this. Ford is sending the city into dangerous zone, he will create the mess he so fondly claims there was. But is myth.
steve replying to a comment from Steve / April 16, 2014 at 05:01 pm
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You misspelled the name of the worst mayor the city ever had, Its M-i-l-l-e-r
ScarboroughRYERSONStudent / April 16, 2014 at 06:31 pm
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It has been proven. Rob Ford supporters are uninformed idiots and bigots. Sources? Just read the comments above. I get really annoyed when these simpletons generalize us suburbanites and proclaim that we all support him. Sit your ass down. We don't want no 3-stop subway to Scarborough Town Centre.
middle replying to a comment from ScarboroughRYERSONStudent / April 16, 2014 at 06:46 pm
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Funny though that its the left supports that so ignorantly paint the suburbs as all uninformed Ford supporters.
Kathy / April 17, 2014 at 10:37 am
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No one have a issue on councillors giving themselves a 12.9% raise??? When was the last time u wr able to vote on a raise for yourself??
Kathy II / April 17, 2014 at 10:46 am
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No one have an issue with a lying Mayor? When was the last time you lied frequently at work and weren't fired?
Kathy III / April 17, 2014 at 10:51 am
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No one have an issue with a Mayor who won't talk to police? When was the last time you refused to talk to the police? Why?
Kathy IV / April 17, 2014 at 03:16 pm
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No one have an issue with a Mayor urinating in public like he's a dog? Do you urinate in public at home or at work or in your child's school yard? Why don't you?
Kathy V / April 17, 2014 at 03:20 pm
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No one have an issue with Ford making false claims of saving money? Do you tell your children that you are saving for their university education when all you do is plan on them working after high school and then count their "tuition" as "savings"?
Come on Kathy move on. Its always rewind, rewind, rewind to last year / April 17, 2014 at 10:57 pm
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Who doesn't want a raise? you can tell white lies, its not that big a deal. I never want to talk to the police if I don't have to. As a guy, I've urinated in a quiet public spot but never been photographed, or even on my own property. The billion dollars can still be debated Rob saved the TAXPAYERS 1 BILLION DOLLARS, not the city that's the debate,he didn't charge us the taxpayer to save us, not by cutting city budget. Isave within my budget but some times I don't save as much as planned.
What an insane post! / April 18, 2014 at 06:44 am
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Go to a psychiatric facility right now!
OneWithTheUniverse...IS SHIRLEY! / April 18, 2014 at 10:08 am
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And the Shirley came back, the very next day, thought she was a goner...
I am toz / April 30, 2014 at 10:20 am
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Ford is the greatest mayor ever!!!! Chow will destroy this city raise taxes and spend money. Ford is the only choice

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