Early polling is a dubious indicator of who will ultimately win an election, but as far as trends go, it's becoming clear that the Toronto mayoral race is going to be a tight battle between its three frontrunners. In the latest poll, conducted by Forum Research for The Toronto Star, Chow leads the pack with 34 per cent of respondents, followed by Ford at 27 per cent, and Tory at 24 per cent. Karen Stintz and David Soknacki, meanwhile, lag behind at six and four per cent.

The 10 per cent gap between Chow and Tory might seem rather large, but the Star points out that the demographics of each candidate's supporters should narrow Chow's advantage come election. Tory polls well with older voters who are more likely to make a trip to the polls, while the opposite is true of Chow.

The poll also asked after respondents second choice for mayor, which, if nothing else, offers insight into Ford's base of support, 82 per cent of whom didn't have a second preference. Chow and Tory's numbers, on the other hand, hover between 29 and 44 per cent. There aren't really any surprises here, but John Tory's competitiveness must have a few members of Ford Nation worried.

The one-day phone-based poll involved 882 residents, and is considered accurate within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.