GTA average home price dips under $1 million for first time in 5 years

The average selling price of a home in the GTA fell below the $1 million mark in January 2026, marking the first time prices have dipped below the seven-figure mark in five years, according to new figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's (TRREB) latest monthly Market Watch report.  

Last month, home sales dropped sharply in the region, especially when compared to the same month in 2025, with just 3,082 sales reported. 

With sales still on the decline, it shouldn't come as a huge surprise that January's average selling prices were down. Last month's average price was $973,289, a substantial dip of 6.5 per cent year-over-year and, just as significant, the first drop below the $1 million mark in years.

And it may not be a blip on the graphs, as throughout 2026, elevated supply levels are expected to keep prices in check, and home sales activity is expected to stay within the same range as the last three years, according to the board's 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review report released on Wednesday. 

GTA home sales are expected to range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions, and market activity is expected to resemble 2025 levels in the first half of 2026, as prospective buyers remain cautious about committing to mortgage payments. 

Sales by home type in the GTA in 2025 versus 2024. Photo: TRREB.

However, the report notes that if economic prospects and consumer confidence improve in the second half of the year, pent-up demand from the past few years could drive up sales activity. 

According to TRREB, the average home price in the region this year is expected to fall anywhere from $1 million to $1.03 million. With elevated supply levels across the market, buyers will likely continue to benefit from greater negotiating power, particularly in the condo apartment segment. 

The report's Ipsos Home Buyers Survey also found that first-time buyers "could be a key driver of recovery" over the next few months, with polling showing that nearly half of intending homebuyers this year will be first-time buyers. 

Despite this, the survey found that renter households face a gap of roughly $600 per month between affordable mortgage payments and the mortgage payments needed to purchase the type of home they want. 

Average price by home type in the GTA in 2025 versus 2024. Photo: TRREB.

According to TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld, "uncertainty" in the region's housing market will continue to influence decisions on homeownership, however, increased "economic clarity" throughout the year might potentially restore confidence and "help unlock demand that has been building for several years."