Average Toronto condo will lose almost $43,000 in value in 2026

The once red-hot Toronto real estate market cooled significantly in 2025, and home prices in Canada's largest metropolitan area are set to drop even more in the new year.

The new Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, released by the real estate agency on Tuesday morning, projects modest decreases to the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), welcome news for the countless prospective buyers who have sat on the sidelines waiting for the market frenzy to die down.

As of the fourth quarter of 2025, the average GTA home price sits at $1,103,800, expected to drop by 4.5 per cent in the next year to a projected average of $1,054,129 by Q4 of 2026.

The average price of a single-family home in the region is not expected to drop quite as severely. The current single-family home average of $1,396,800 is expected to decline by just one per cent by the fourth quarter of 2026 to $1,382,832.

Condo prices are expected to continue their freefall in the new year, projected to decline by 6.5 per cent from a fourth-quarter 2025 average of $658,700 down to $615,885. That represents an average decline in value for condo owners of $42,815.

Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold at Royal LePage Your Community Realty, says the fall market this year proved "more of a whisper than a roar," noting that, "in a typical cycle, this would be one of the busiest times of the year to buy and sell, but that hasn't materialized."

Zigelstein states that there are a few factors driving the current downturn, including buyers "trying to time the best deal" compounded by economic uncertainty.

"With no real urgency to make a move, buyers are taking their time, weighing their decisions and moving with far more caution than we saw just a few years ago when competition was intense and choices had to be made quickly," said Zigelstein. 

He also notes the push for in-office work requirements as a factor, stating that, amid return-to-office mandates, "many Canadians are unsure what their future commute will look like, making it harder to decide where to put down roots."

While it's a lot of doom and gloom for the many trying to sell their homes in this market, Zigelstein stresses that "softer competition is creating meaningful opportunities, especially as prices continue to ease. We have seen a year-over-year increase in transactions for freehold properties under $1 million, which tells us that some buyers are capitalizing on current market conditions."

In the near future, Zigelstein expects a slowdown in new construction to result in a flat market this winter, stating that changes to market conditions before spring are unlikely at best.

"If we do see a rebound, it's unlikely to happen overnight. A recovery will probably build gradually as confidence improves, economic signals stabilize, and buyers begin to feel more secure in making long-term decisions."