Housing prices in Toronto falling and here's what a home will cost by the end of 2025

Now that we're in the final quarter of 2025, year-end predictions are underway, including for Toronto's imperiled housing market.

Canada as a whole has trudged through a particularly harrowing few months economically, between tariffs, job losses, a declining GDP and the recession we're still teetering on the edge of.

All of the above, along with high interest rates and price points, have contributed to an unprecedented real estate downturn in the nation's hottest cities — primarily, Toronto.

The latest reports from industry experts point to continued downward pressure on prices as a consequence of a shrinking pool of interested buyers, though sales numbers are, at long last, slowly recovering from the rock-bottom levels we saw earlier in the year.

Still, many property owners are eager — even desperate — to sell, making for an uncharacteristic chasm between supply and demand.

Even with new construction virtually at a standstill relative to past years and pre-existing targets, the sheer number of listings on the market, along with the aforementioned factors, has made prospective buyers lackadaisical in their search, able to take their time and haggle prices far lower than the city's bidding-war-riddled heyday.

As a result, the cost of the average residential property in the GTA has tumbled compared to what it was at this time last year, with the hub experiencing the largest decline of any large urban centre in Canada, being one of only a few that saw prices drop at all, year-over-year.

Per new stats published by local firm Wahi on Thursday, Toronto, Vancouver, and Hamilton represent Canada's "most expensive markets, where inventory levels are at multi-year highs, homebuying demand is subdued, and housing starts are in decline for lack of demand, [putting] prices in negative territory."

Conversely, the typical home in once-notoriously inexpensive Quebec City rose 13 per cent in the last year, while Winnipeg (+11 per cent), Regina (+9 per cent) and Montreal (+7 per cent) also saw values trend upward, in part due to migration and population growth.

"While the RPS-Wahi House Price Index was unchanged on a year-over-year basis in September at the national level, select markets are beginning to see price growth accelerate," the agency wrote.

New home price index from Wahi.

In its own market survey and forecast, meanwhile, industry leader Royal LePage cited a year-over-year price reduction of a slightly lesser 3.5 per cent in the GTA, dragged down by locales like Pickering (where the price of the standard home plummeted by 10.8 per cent since Q3 of last year), Ajax (-5.3 per cent), Burlington (-4.9 per cent) and Toronto proper (-7.4 per cent).

The company puts the mean price of a home in the region, across sizes and categories, at $1,114,900 currently, and anticipates even further reductions, despite things picking up elsewhere in the country.

"Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year," it stated in a release on Wednesday, noting that "the previous forecast has been revised down to reflect current market conditions."

Canadian home price forecast from Royal LePage.

This certainly isn't the first time a real estate giant has had to amend its previous Toronto market outlooks for the worst, but it's nevertheless unfortunate news for stakeholders, along with being a concerning sign of how poor the economy overall is.