Here's how much the average home in Toronto is expected to cost by 2032

Toronto's housing market has been struggling lately, with the golden era — when local real estate was a surefire profitable investment — seemingly far behind us.

While sales have fallen flat for many months and prices are hurtling downwards, the latest predictions for the industry still foresee the average home in the city getting more expensive in the coming years, albeit not to the degree that many may have assumed (or, for existing homeowners, hoped).

A report on the topic that is making headlines this week comes from Concordia University's John Molson School of Business, researchers from which controversially employed AI to anticipate real estate trends across Canada and, based on those figures, suggest relevant public policy reforms.

The analysis starts off by citing a "period of crisis" that it says has dominated the market not just in Toronto, but across Canada, fueled by "chronic undersupply and unrelenting demand."

We must point out, though, that recent stats show this long-standing trend has been turned on its head in the GTA, where the plummeting interest from buyers has led to a record glut of supply.

But the report is correct in asserting that purchasing a home in Canada has not been easy or affordable for residents for quite some time. And the study's numbers prove as much, stating that any old home in Toronto, as of 2024, costs around $1.4 million, which makes us one of the most "impossible affordable" cities for property in the world.

This number, Concordia's AI models say, will inflate by another $100,000, to $1.5 million, by 2025, then another $400,000 to a whopping $1.8 million by 2032 — a figure that could be curbed substantially by expediting residential building projects, which will necessitate some major changes at various levels of government, they suggest.

"We find that easing municipal regulation and streamlining approval processes are low-cost, high-impact levers to unlock supply, especially for single-family homes," the report states, emphasizing "the importance of removing policy and bureaucratic obstacles from the housing completion process."

But, while cutting prohibitive red tape like development charges — which in Toronto have escalated by an astonishing 993 per cent in less than 15 years — can help, the researchers add that their findings "are not without nuance."

"Regulatory streamlining and ambitious supply-side targets are necessary but, alone, insufficient to alleviate Canada's housing crisis," they continue.

Concordia University

The doc then goes on to cite how Canada's current population policy, immigration patterns, and construction costs have worsened the landscape for anyone hoping to own a home here — something other experts, like those at TD Economics, have also highlighted.

Along with reevaluating current building processes, this report suggests "a coordinated, multi-faceted, long-term policy response" that addresses things like the rapid influx of new residents to "slow population growth and potentially impact housing demand and affordability" beyond just the short term.

"The recent policy to reduce non-permanent residents helps stabilize prices temporarily until 2027. However, as population growth normalizes, averaging 400,000– 500,000 new residents per year, prices will begin climbing again," it warns.

So yes, speeding up approvals for new developments in the pipeline and trying to cut costs for builders — many of whom are taking a great pause from the Toronto market — is just one quick way to help the situation.

But, wider, more long-term visions and solutions are needed, for which it may prove difficult to balance conflicting issues (such as a dearth of skilled construction labour vs. how immigration surges deteriorate overall affordability by creating demand shock).