Toronto's condo market just hit a shocking rock-bottom low

Once a safe, often profitable bet for investors and first-time homebuyers, Toronto-area condos have gone from having a heyday to a downturn in just a few short years.

A combination of factors that include the region's poor economy, obscene cost of living, and the shock of high (though lessening) interest rates in recent years has slowed our once-booming real estate market to a halt, with sales plummeting despite more homes being available for purchase than ever before.

It's been enough to impact construction as developers put off or completely pull out of new projects, especially condos, which are of the least interest to a dwindling number of buyers out of any housing type. And, while realtors, builders and owners keep hoping for a recovery in the near future, the data emerging each month just keeps painting a picture of how far the sector has fallen (and is still falling).

The latest report shedding light on the situation comes from real estate consulting firm Urbanation, which says that the GTA has hit a record high for newly-completed condo units on the market. Even worse, sales activity has meanwhile hit an appalling low point, coming in at 91 per cent below the 10-year average in Q2 2025, which is usually the strongest quarter of the year for the industry.

"The GTHA had a record-high 2,478 new condominium apartments that were completed and available for purchase from developers as of Q2, a 102 per cent increase from a year ago and more than five times higher than the level from two years ago," the firm wrote this week, pointing out that this figure also doesn't account for all completed units that were pre-sold but are yet to close, and thus may still end up for sale.

At the same time, prices for these units are dropping (by an average of six per cent year-over-year, and by 16 per cent from this time in 2023), and they are also sitting on the market for far longer, a trend that has been worsening since last year.

Graph from Urbanation's Q2-2025 Condominium Market Survey, released July 15, 2025.

Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand expressed concern rather than hope, which is rare for stakeholder reports such as this one, which tend to remain hopeful with predictions of a bounceback.

"The market has entered a phase of the downturn that is really starting to wreak havoc. Project cancellations are mounting, construction starts are collapsing, jobs are being lost, buyers are losing a lot of money, and developers are facing difficulties with closings," he stated.

"While a reduction to deliveries next year should help to alleviate some pressure, the near-term will remain very challenging."