Tariff uncertainty is affecting Canadian real estate and Ontario is hardest hit

While spring is typically the busiest time of the year to buy a home as more properties become available and competition increases, the housing market this season appears to be in a bit of a decline in Canada —and especially in Ontario — amid the ongoing trade war with the United States. 

According to a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales in the country fell sharply from January to February, as many prospective home buyers chose to remain on the sidelines due to the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. 

Sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems dropped 9.8 per cent month over month in February, marking the lowest level for home sales since November 2023, and the largest month-over-month decline in activity since May 2022. 

"The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity," said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.

"This is already being reflected in renewed price softness, particularly in Ontario's Greater Golden Horseshoe region." 

Although declines were broad-based, with sales falling in about 75 per cent of all local markets and in almost all large markets, the trend was the most noticeable in the GTA and surrounding Great Golden Horseshoe regions. 

New listings also plunged 12.7 per cent month-over-month, returning all of the surprise surge recorded in January. 

"The uncertainty of the last few weeks seems to be causing some buyers to think twice about big financial decisions right now," said James Mabey, CREA Chair. "For others, a softer pricing environment and now lower interest rates will be a buying opportunity." 

The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) also declined by 0.8 per cent from January to February 2025, marking the largest month-over-month decrease since December 2023, with the renewed softening in prices being the most pronounced in Ontario's Greater Golden Horseshoe region.