Even if realtors insist that home prices in and around Toronto are on the verge of another spike, after months of unprecedentedly low activity and record-high inventory, other experts are predicting the complete opposite.

One could argue that the latest market forecast from Oxford Economics is far more realistic than others given the real estate landscape in the city as of late: condo sales just hit a 27-year low, the number of homes on the market is at a 10+ year high, and developers are putting projects into receivership or halting them altogether.

These are trends that the global advisory firm expects will continue through the remainder of the year, as interest rate cuts that others have been banking on for a rebound in sales aren't substantial enough to make a difference for the average person in high-priced cities like Toronto.

Here's one more key sign that Toronto's real estate market is in distress right now https://t.co/HdpvxA5vKU

— blogTO (@blogTO) July 11, 2024

"We anticipate widespread house price declines in all Canadian metros we forecast in [the second half of] 2024," the company's experts say in a new report that warns of an uptick in "distress sales" that will keep inventory levels sky-high.

"We think elevated housing unaffordability and the growing strain on households from the wave of mortgage renewals will cause listings to grow faster than demand... moreso in markets where there's been higher indebtedness," they write.

Such a stupid market. 😐

— Sal (@seeweed_owns) August 6, 2024

Contrary to projections that homebuying competition will suddenly increase and average prices in the GTA will surge by 10 per cent in the final quarter of 2024 — the most of any metropolitan area in Canada — this new assessment states that homes in the nation's biggest city will actually plummet by about seven per cent by year's end.

The cost of a dwelling in Canada at large, meanwhile, will fall by another five per cent from current levels, led by Vancouver and Toronto, as well as Halifax, Calgary, Winnipeg and Quebec City.

The report adds that as 2024 closes out, the average Canadian homeowner will be blowing 9.3 per cent of their disposable income on their mortgage due to the severe lack of housing affordability, the highest figure since 1990.