toronto housing market

Experts say Toronto's housing prices will likely climb even more in 2023

Experts expect inflated home prices in Canada to decline slightly in 2023, but anyone hoping for a price correction in Toronto's red-hot housing market probably shouldn't hold their breath.

According to RE/MAX's 2022 Fall Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report, the housing market in Ontario — as well as much of the rest of the country — has experienced a decline due to the impacts of rising interest rates, and several markets in the province are already witnessing a reduction in the number of units sold.

Places like Oakville, Windsor, Barrie, Durham, Kingston and Kitchener-Waterloo can expect declining home sales in the coming months, and with them, a likely decrease in prices for those markets.

And while RE/MAX experts suggest that "apart from Oakville and Muskoka, average residential sale prices in Ontario are likely to remain steady or decrease between two to 10 per cent in the fall months," the same forecast predicts "the Greater Toronto housing market is expected to regain balance in 2023, albeit with low inventory continuing to place upward pressure on prices."

Much of the regional market's strength lies in the luxury residential sub-market, with municipalities like Oakville showing resilience to inflation and the growing threat of a significant economic recession.

This sustained demand, while great for the real estate industry, translates to an expected two per cent increase in residential sale prices this fall.

These conditions are present in cottage country, too, where Muskoka remains a hot destination for buyers looking for comparatively cheaper digs than in the big city.

"While we are still facing significant housing supply shortages across the Canadian housing market, many regions are experiencing softer sales activity given recent interest rate hikes. This provides some reprieve from the unprecedented demand and unsustainable price increases we've seen across Canada through 2021 and in early 2022," says Christopher Alexander, President at RE/MAX Canada.

"However, the current lull in the market is only temporary. Until housing supply increases, these ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ cycles will likely be a recurring event."

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