toronto condo market forecast 2021

Toronto condo prices are falling again but only in the downtown core

The aggressive roller coaster ride that is Toronto's housing market won't be slowing down or levelling out any time soon according to real estate experts, unless something drastic changes in the near future to boost inventory levels.

In fact, housing affordability is expected to continue deteriorating across the entire country for the remainder of 2021 — but not all types of homes will increase in value equally, nor will all regions see the same type of price growth.

Royal LePage's latest House Price Survey and Market Forecast, released Tuesday, predicts that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase by roughly 11 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, compared to the same quarter last year.

This prediction is based in part on what was observed during the winter of 2020-2021, which Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper describes as "one of the most imbalanced real estate markets in our country's history."

During the first three months of 2021 alone, the aggregate price of a GTA home (read: all home types, including detached houses, condos and townhouses) shot up by 13.1 per cent, year-over-year, to reach $989,961.

Two-storey homes and bungalows were up 13.6 per cent and 15.3 per cent respectively, while condo prices increased by 1.2 per cent across the region.

In the City of Toronto itself, however, the median price of a condominium apartment actually dipped (albeit slightly) by 0.6 per cent to $637,551.

The trend likely won't last, however — it didn't the last time, when buyers jumped to take advantage of cheaper-than-usual listing prices last fall, only to drive prices right back up again.

"There is a persistent momentum in the market that continues to put upward pressure on prices," says Royal LePage SVP Debra Harris.

"Without an extended surge of inventory, that momentum is unlikely to relent," she says. "Homeowners who want to move are reluctant to list their homes before they buy because they are concerned there won't be anything available, and the cycle continues."

Both Harris and Soper warn that the anticipated return of immigrants and students in a post-pandemic world will drive up condo sales (and likely prices) this coming fall for Toronto and surrounding areas.

"2020 was a year like no other in Canadian real estate, with its unprecedented demand for homes, and month after month of record-setting sales and price appreciation," says Soper.

"The usual winter slowdown was non-existent, and that momentum was carried forward through the first quarter of 2021."

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